Taoiseach warns No to Lisbon would be 'disaster'

A NO vote in the upcoming referendum on the Lisbon Treaty would be a "disaster for the country", the Taoiseach said yesterday…

A NO vote in the upcoming referendum on the Lisbon Treaty would be a "disaster for the country", the Taoiseach said yesterday.

Bertie Ahern gave a stark warning yesterday against complacency among voters and politicians, and spelled out the difficulties the Yes side will face if there is a low turnout on June 12th. He said it would have "repercussions that would do immense damage to Ireland".

The Taoiseach was speaking after his last speech as party leader at the annual Fianna Fáil 1916 commemoration in Arbour Hill yesterday. He said turnout would be critical. "The campaign is only starting. What people have to do is take this seriously. This will not be won sitting at home or sitting in Dáil Éireann. In fact, that's how it will be lost," Mr Ahern said.

He was responding to the latest opinion poll which showed that the margin between the Yes and No sides in the campaign had narrowed to four points, almost within the margin of error.

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The poll, conducted by Red C and published in the Sunday Business Post yesterday, shows support for the treaty at 35 per cent, with 31 per cent of those surveyed opposed.

With six weeks to go, the number of undecided voters remains high, at 34 per cent. The results also suggest that a majority of farmers now oppose the treaty.

In comments directed at farmers, Mr Ahern said: "The biggest beneficiaries [of the European Union] are the agricultural communities and they should be the ones leading this campaign for it.

"The world trade [ talks], we will resolve. I just hope that the agricultural community quickly turn around their attitude to get behind the Lisbon agenda. It's in their interest more than any other interest or any other section in this country."

In the wake of the mass rally organised by the Irish Farmers Association in Dublin 11 days ago and yesterday's poll, there are growing fears among those campaigning for a Yes vote that the farming community may vent its frustration with the WTO negotiations, and proposals from EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson, by voting against the treaty.

The concerns were not alleviated yesterday by IFA president Pádraig Walsh who said he was not surprised by the negative views of farmers, as that was the message he was getting around the country.

"Neither should the Government be surprised as they must be aware of the fears amongst farmers of a Mandelson WTO sell-out that would decimate their livelihoods and destroy thousands of rural jobs," Mr Walsh said.

Minister for Agriculture Mary Coughlan yesterday tried to reassure farmers. "Irish farmers have received over €41 billion in transfers from the European Union since 1973.

"Fianna Fáil will always protect the Common Agricultural Policy at home and abroad at all times. We will vigorously defend the interests of Irish farmers, their families and rural communities during the CAP review process," she said, adding that a No vote would weaken Ireland's negotiating strategy.

Later today, the Referendum Commission, chaired by Mr Justice Iarfhlaith O'Neill, will launch its public information campaign.

Fine Gael MEP Gay Mitchell also said the small gap between the Yes and No sides acted as a "wake-up call" to those campaigning for a Yes vote. "There is no point in getting apples mixed up with oranges. People who want to target Peter Mandelson's handling of the negotiations must get to know that the WTO talks are not the same as the Lisbon Treaty," Mr Mitchell said.

Joe Costello of the Labour Party said that the Yes campaign had been slow to get its act together. "People are frustrated with the shortage of good quality information," he said.

The Irish Alliance for Europe yesterday added its voice to those opposing proposals put forward by Mr Mandelson to reduce tariffs on imports to the European Union.

Harry McGee

Harry McGee

Harry McGee is a Political Correspondent with The Irish Times