Secondary teachers may defy a recommendation from the ASTI leadership and vote to accept the latest €38 per hour offer on supervision, according to union sources.
The result of the vote - which will be known later today - is expected to be very tight. But with the turnout said to be "in excess of 50 per cent" confidence is growing in the Department of Education that ASTI members will back the deal .
ASTI sources from both the moderate and hard-line wings were last night predicting a very narrow victory for the "Yes" camp. But, with voting in the ballot only concluding yesterday, they warned that this was simply "informed speculation".
One source stressed that the vote could go either way but he said the momentum was with the Yes camp.
A Yes vote would represent a strong political victory for the Minister for Education, Mr Dempsey, who addressed teachers at several public meetings on the issue. Mr Dempsey has warned that he is poised to put in place new supervision arrangements for schools if the current offer is rejected.
A rejection of the offer by teachers would represent a setback for Mr Dempsey who was criticised by the ASTI leadership for his "interference" in the ballot. Last year, teachers endorsed the supervision deal by 63 per cent to 37 per cent. The turnout was 55 per cent.
A re-ballot was called by the ASTI leadership because of a dispute about payment for "on -call" working.
The ASTI leadership has recommended rejection of the supervision offer.
The €38 per hour on offer is a pensionable payment. Under the scheme teachers can opt in and opt out of the plan in any school year.
There are increasing signs that the ASTI is turning away from its recent hard-line stance towards a more moderate view. The union leadership recently voted to ballot members on the new pay deal and the 13 per cent benchmarking offer without making any recommendation.
The union is also considering a change to its voting structures after 3,500 members demanded school based ballots to replace the current ballots at branch level. This issue will be considered at a special ASTI convention next month.
The new supervision deal has already been accepted by the other teaching unions.
Until the ASTI dispute, teachers performed supervision and substitution duties on a voluntary basis.
Teachers stand to gain over €1,400 a year from supervision plus back money of about €1,000 if they accept the deal.
