The anniversary of a very famous forecast

I have heard it claimed in the very early hours of April that the science of hydrology takes its name from the 19th-century archaeologist…

I have heard it claimed in the very early hours of April that the science of hydrology takes its name from the 19th-century archaeologist Godolphus Hyde.

By dint of careful excavation, it is said, Hyde assembled a series of monthly rainfall charts for Lower Mesopotamia for 2348 BC, and discovered a clear maximum in late November, thereby establishing the precise date of Noah's flood.

But of course Godolphus never was. Hydrologists owe the label of their calling to the Greek word hudor, meaning water. Hydrology concerns itself with where it comes from, where it goes and how it gets there and tries to explain such happenings as

Contagious fogs, which falling on the land

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Have every pelting river made so proud,

That they have overborne their continent.

But why should the story have Godolphus homing in on this particular date?

The most common methodology for estimating when the Bible's most spectacular meteorological event occurred is that of biblical "begats". According to Genesis, Adam begat a son called Seth when he was 130-years-old, and incidentally lived for another 800 years to reach the grand old age of 930.

The lively Seth, in turn, had a son when he was 105 and this son Enos, begat Cainan when he was a mere stripling of 90. And so it goes on through a long list to reach Methusalah and finally Methusalah's grandson Noah.

By continuing this analysis and by using other bits and scraps of information in the various chapters, one can reach a stage where the happenings described overlap with confirmed historical events and so is it possible to arrive at an estimate for the date of the Creation; a quick re-run will then provide the date of Noah's flood.

The most conscientious experts place this on November 25th, 2348 BC.

Thus it was that exactly 4346 years ago today - if we carefully omit year zero - Noah, having been the recipient of a very accurate long-range forecast about 100 years before, completed his ark in time to avoid the worst effects of the expected dramatic increase in monthly rainfall.

He loaded it with his family and two of every kind of insect, animal and bird.

Then, exactly as forecast "the rain fell upon the Earth for 40 days and 40 nights and overflowed exceedingly and filled all the faces of the Earth and the water was 15 cubits higher than the mountains which it covered".

Six months later, the ark was beached upon Mount Ararat and the survivors went about their daily business.