The challenge for `new nationalists'

Although one must always be wary of historical analogies, there are certain parallels between the Hume-Adams pact, which brought…

Although one must always be wary of historical analogies, there are certain parallels between the Hume-Adams pact, which brought us to where we are today in Northern Ireland politics, and the "New Departure" of 1879 between the leader of constitutional nationalism, Charles Stewart Parnell, and Sinn Fein's predecessors in the Fenian Brotherhood.

This early example of a pan-nationalist front was set up to prosecute the Land War. The Fenians believed Westminster could not grant enough concessions to avert revolution; Parnell thought sufficient pressure could be put on London to agree a settlement that would also further his own more measured objective of Home Rule.

For land reform, in the context of today's Northern Ireland, read the equality agenda. This somewhat amorphous concept embraces everything from power-sharing to equality in employment and the thorny question of symbols, flags and emblems.

The equality agenda can be seen as the linear descendant of the original civil rights demands in Northern Ireland. Some of its adherents saw the civil rights movement in the late 1960s as the mole that would burrow under the foundations of the Northern state, precipitating revolution and eventual unity of the whole island. It certainly precipitated revolution or at least civil war. What started off as a revolt of students and lawyers ended up as a vicious guerrilla conflict with violence that spiralled out of control until, with events like the Enniskillen and Shankill Road bombings, it was hard to discern any ideal or purpose other than some vague notion of revenge.

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Morally, it was very hard to square these atrocities with the ideals of Wolfe Tone; politically, they were contributing to the isolation of Sinn Fein at home and abroad. It was time to look again at the words of John Hume, the wise teacher by the banks of the Foyle repeating his mantra like a record needle stuck in a groove, that, yes, there was another way. Malcolm X had to come to terms with Martin Luther King.

Some Sinn Fein people like to say their party is the dynamic force in Northern politics: this is not strictly true. Adams without Hume, and perhaps vice versa, would be like one hand clapping. The real dynamic force was not these two individuals but the community at their back. Northern nationalists are probably the most politically sophisticated and aware population subgroup in the whole of western Europe.

Perhaps the Czechs before 1989 were comparable, or the Poles in the era of Solidarity, or the Catalans and Basques before they became comfortable with autonomy. But today there is no sizeable community that can be directly compared with Northern Irish nationalists in having both a sense of collective grievance and the political skills and consciousness to resolve it without going to war any more.

When the early figures from Thursday night's exit poll were emerging some commentators began to predict not only that the SDLP would be the largest party in the Assembly but that John Hume would be First Minister. Senior SDLP sources were taking a less intoxicated view, having been around long enough to know that Santa only arrives at Christmas, and in Northern politics you make your own luck.

But there's no doubt, even in advance of the final destination of the 108 Assembly seats, that it has been a good election for the SDLP and that Sinn Fein has little to complain about either. The last building block is now in place: first we had the IRA ceasefire, followed by the loyalist reciprocation; then the long and painful road when the ceasefire collapsed and had to be revived to lead to the Belfast Agreement; then the referendum and the growing involvement of Tony Blair until it now seems his reputation will stand or fall by what happens in Northern Ireland.

Now we have the Assembly about to be born, probably next Wednesday, with the inevitable pulling and dragging over Sinn Fein's membership of the executive. By the autumn, after more than a few media cliffhangers, we could well see the establishment of an unprecedented power-sharing "shadow" administration embracing some of the most unlikely political partners ever to sit around a cabinet table. After that, the "new nationalism" will face some hard choices and difficult challenges. The biggest difficulty will be coming to terms with their neighbours, now their fellow-ministers, who still retain a completely contrary view of what is good for the people of Northern Ireland and the direction this society ought to take for the future.

Catholic, Protestant and dissenter will be playing on the same team, but will they have the same game plan?

The other interesting development to watch will be the relationship between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. The lines are becoming blurred already, and some imaginative souls like to speculate about an eventual pan-nationalist party with John Hume and Gerry Adams as president and vice-president respectively.

Many will say this is a fanciful notion, especially given the class differences between the two parties, but considering all the extraordinary things that have come to pass already, it might be foolish to rule it out for ever.