Best Picture Three movies have built up the momentum to see them through to the final five: Chicago, Gangs of New York and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.
The other realistic contenders are The Hours, The Pianist, About Schmidt, Adaptation, and Far From Heaven, while notable long-shots include Talk To Her, Road to Perdition, Y Tu Mama Tambien and Michael Moore's documentary, Bowling For Columbine.
Prediction Chicago, Gangs of New York, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Hours, The Pianist.
Best Director
All the directors of the contenders for best film will be up for places here, but as often happens, these two Oscar shortlists will not coincide. Martin Scorsese, who has never won the Oscar, is a certainty for Gangs of New York, as is Peter Jackson for The Two Towers. First-time director Rob Marshall will benefit from the buzz building on Chicago, even though his work is less inventive than that of Baz Luhrmann on Moulin Rouge last year, and Luhrmann failed to be nominated. I expect Pedro Almodóvar to take Roman Polanski's place, and for Marshall to get in ahead of the more deserving Todd Haynes (Far From Heaven) and Alexander Payne (About Schmidt).
Prediction Martin Scorsese, Peter Jackson, Rob Marshall, Stephen Daldry, Pedro Almodóvar.
Best Actor
The certainties here are three-time Oscar-winner Jack Nicholson, who's about to chalk up his 12th Oscar nomination for About Schmidt, and Daniel Day-Lewis, who won the award for My Left Foot in 1989, for Gangs of New York. The battle for the other three places on the shortlist is fierce, and mostly involving former winners and nominees. A winner twice as best supporting actor, Michael Caine has been campaigning vigorously in Hollywood for The Quiet American. Nicolas Cage, an Oscar-winner in 1995 for Leaving Las Vegas, is back on the trail with his dual role as twin screenwriters in Adaptation. Edward Norton may get his third nomination for his work in Spike Lee's the 25th Hour. The only likely first-time nominees are Richard Gere (Chicago), Hugh Grant (About a Boy) and Adrien Brody (The Pianist). Longer shots include Robin Williams (One Hour Photo or Insomnia), Al Pacino (Insomnia), Tom Hanks (Road to Perdition), Leonardo DiCaprio (Catch Me If You Can), Greg Kinnear (Auto Focus), Dennis Quaid (The Rookie), Campbell Scott (Roger Dodger), Eminem (8 Mile) and the late Richard Harris (My Kingdom). This is exceedingly hard to call and could be decided by a handful of votes.
Prediction Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, Michael Caine, Richard Gere, Edward Norton.
Best Actress
The Hours should take two of the five places here - for Nicole Kidman and Meryl Streep - and Julianne Moore, from the same film, will be nominated for her more substantial role in Far From Heaven. Former child star and indies favourite Diane Lane is likely to take the fourth slot for Unfaithful. That leaves a tussle between Salma Hayak (Frida), Jennifer Aniston (The Good Girl), Isabelle Huppert (The Piano Teacher), Nia Vardalos (My Big Fat Greek Wedding), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Secretary) and Golden Globe winner Renee Zellweger, to my mind, the weakest link in Chicago, but that movie's on a roll and she probably will get into contention.
Prediction Nicole Kidman, Meryl Streep, Julianne Moore, Diane Lane, Renee Zellweger.
Best Supporting Actress
Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore will crop up here, too, for Adaptation and The Hours, respectively. They will be joined by Kathy Bates (a former best actress winner for Misery) for About Schmidt, and, if there's any justice, by Catherine Zeta-Jones, the true star of Chicago. That leaves a long list of contenders for the fifth place, principally Sopranos star Edie Falco (Sunshine State), Tovah Feldshuh (Kissing Jessica Stein), Lainie Kazan (My Big Fat Greek Wedding), Toni Collette (About a Boy), Susan Sarandon (Igby Goes Down) and Cameron Diaz (Gangs of New York). However, although this category is very likely to yield surprises, the final place is down to Queen Latifah (Chicago) or Patricia Clarkson (Far From Heaven).
Prediction Meryl Streep, Julianne Moore, Kathy Bates, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Patricia Clarkson.
Best Supporting Actor
Two former Oscar winners should make the cut - Paul Newman for Road to Perdition and Christopher Walken for Catch Me If You Can. The well-respected character actor, Chris Cooper, is certain to be nominated for Adaptation, and Ed Harris could make the list for the third time, for The Hours. That leaves one place to be decided between Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven), Ray Liotta (Narc), Alfred Molina (Frida), Andy Serkis (The Two Towers) and the ubiquitous John C. Reilly (Chicago, The Hours, The Good Girl and Gangs of New York).
Prediction Chris Cooper, Christopher Walken, Paul Newman, Ed Harris, Dennis Quaid.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The tougher of the two screenplay categories has to be this, and the crowded field is led by Charlie Kaufman for Adaptation, Bill Condon for Chicago, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor for About Schmidt, and Peter Jackson and his three co-writers on The Two Towers. Fifth place will be fought between The Hours, Road to Perdition, The 25th Hour, The Quiet American, and Personal Velocity. It's most likely to go to David Hare for his skilful work on The Hours.
Prediction Adaptation, About Schmidt, Chicago, The Two Towers, The Hours.
Best Original Screenplay
With most of the heavy-hitters in the other screenplay category, this could be the Academy's chance to honour films which may not fair well in the other key categories - such as Y Tu Mama Tambien, Talk to Her, Punch-Drunk Love, Igby Goes Down, Roger Dodger and My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Sure-shorts here are Far From Heaven and Gangs of New York.
Prediction Far From Heaven, Gangs of New York, Talk to Her, Y Tu Mama Tambien, My Big Fat Greek Wedding.
Best Foreign-Language Film
In a record entry, 54 countries have submitted films for this regularly unpredictable category. The most high-profile are 8 Femmes (France), City of God (Brazil), Nowhere in Africa (Germany), Lilya 4-Ever (Sweden), The Crime of Father Amaro (Mexico), Hero (China), Open Hearts (Denmark), The Man Without a Past (Sweden), Mondays in the Sun (Spain), Broken Wings (Israel), and Pinocchio (Italy). As ever, expect several surprises here.
Prediction 8 Women, City of God, The Crime of Father Amaro, Open Hearts, Hero.