Should Fine Gael lose the Tipp South by-election today, which is unlikely, there will be no immediate changes within the party. There was speculation that such a calamity would see Michael Noonan on the first bus back to Limerick. Not so. The FG hierarchy believes an election is so close that any change at the top would be highly dangerous and the team now in place must, come what may, soldier on to polling day.
Fine Gael says it will be on an election footing from the autumn, but there is little new in that. Parties in opposition make such declarations all the time, to enthuse the troops and avoid accusations of being unprepared, but with the coalition Government now four years in power, the final 12 months have arrived. Tuesday's sarcastic birthday antics were a salvo across the bows of the Government before the Dβil gets up next week.
The serious business starts in the autumn with the countdown to the December budget and the run up to a spring general election.
Noonan has been beefing up his team in preparation for his one chance at being taoiseach. The former ambassador to the US and programme manager for John Bruton, Sean Donlon, joined as part-time adviser in April and is in Leinster House every Tuesday and Wednesday.
His report into party structures (concentrating on finding a more professional way to deploy the 32 staff in the leader's office, the press office and headquarters), is being implemented. Brian Looney, former editor of the Irish Examiner, is joining as director of policy communication, to concentrate on getting the FG message across to the country at large.
Tom Hayes needs to win well today to set Noonan's leadership back on the roll he lost when foot-and-mouth led to the cancellation of his first ardfheis in March and revelations from the tribunals seriously damaged the party image and his honeymoon period.