Just off the Newry by-pass to the left lies south Armagh, long identified as one of the republican heartlands of Northern Ireland. It is not difficult to see why: within a few hundred yards every lamppost carries a pristine Tricolour, and many bear improvised circular signs with a line drawn through the letters "RUC".
The village of Camlough is the home of Conor Murphy, a Sinn Fein councillor and one of the party's three candidates standing for the new Assembly in the Newry and Armagh constituency. In this area unionists do not even field a candidate, he said, so the fight is between Sinn Fein and the SDLP.
"People will vote on how parties performed in the last period and their potential to deliver," he said.
Despite the ceasefires and the vote for the Belfast Agreement, the activities of the British army continue to be an issue in the area, he said. "Bessbrook is just a mile over the hill. It's the busiest heliport in Europe. After the ceasefire there was a huge increase in military activity, and the soldiers normally have a checkpoint outside this house.
"It amuses people around here to hear calls to say the war is over when we can see it being stepped up all around us." As we were speaking a helicopter flew over the house.
He said Sinn Fein is hoping to have all three of its candidates (the others are Pat McNamee and Davy Hyland) elected, but, despite their undoubted dominance in south Armagh, this seems unlikely.
The quota will be between 7,000 and 8,000 votes, and Sinn Fein got just over 11,000 in the Westminster elections, so they will be lucky to take two seats.
The SDLP had almost three quotas in the last election, and it is hoping to have all three of its candidates elected to the Assembly. They are the sitting MP and deputy leader, Seamus Mallon; his research assistant and local councillor, John Fee, and the Newry town councillor, Frank Feely.
However, to elect three they will have to manage their vote very effectively, and ensure that Seamus Mallon does not leave the others too far behind to stay ahead of the Sinn Fein candidates. "We'll ask each candidate to canvass a specific area," said John Fee. "I'll canvass in south Armagh, Frank Feely in Newry town and Seamus Mallon in Armagh town. But we'll take all candidates as a team into all the urban areas."
They will be asking voters to transfer to other "pro-Agreement" candidates, including the Ulster Unionist Party. "We want to get Yes people into this Assembly," he said.
"It will be a helpful new departure if some people do express preferences across the sectarian divisions."
Obviously this will not please Sinn Fein, but the SDLP expects to get their transfers anyway in south Armagh, while it would like to join forces with the UUP in the more unionist part of the constituency around Armagh city, in order to keep the DUP candidate out. He is Paul Berry, who emerged as a rising star in the party during the referendum campaign, regularly appearing on radio and television.
Berry was 22 on Wednesday, the day he handed in his nomination papers. Although he has never contested an election, he hopes his media appearances and his reputation as a gospel singer will make his name familiar, and that he will add enough to the almost 5,000 votes the party got in the forum elections to take the seat.
He faces two veteran campaigners from the Ulster Unionist Party in his battle for the hearts and minds of unionist voters. Jim Speers, from the neat village of Richhill, near Armagh, where he runs an insurance business, has been a councillor for 21 years. He numbers among his achievements helping to have city status restored to Armagh, of which he has been mayor. His running mate is Danny Kennedy, who has 13 years' experience as a councillor. Both are supporters of the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble.
"This election is to elect people capable of taking on the mantle of government," he said. "I will be going to the Assembly with a positive frame of mind."
There is little doubt there will be a fight in this constituency for the last seat. The Alliance Party got only 1,000 votes in the Westminster election, so it is not likely to see its candidate, Pete Whitcroft, elected. Kate Fearon is running for the Women's Coalition, and will probably pick up votes as one of the only two women candidates (the other is Mary Allen, a GP from Crossmaglen concerned about the affect of military masts), but is unlikely to turn this into a quota.
Candidates:
SDLP: John Fee, Frank Feely, Seamus Mallon; UUP: Danny Kennedy, Jim Speers; Sinn Fein: Davy Hyland, Pat McNamee, Conor Murphy; DUP: Paul Berry; Alliance: Pete Whitcroft; Women's Coalition: Kate Fearon; In- dependent: Dr Mary Allen; Natural Law Party: Dave Evans Westminster 1997:
SDLP: 43 per cent; UUP: 34 per cent; SF: 21 per cent; Alliance: 1 per cent; NLP: 0.23 per cent