The International Year of (Sex) Older People

You might not know this is the International Year of Older Persons, with the catchy but little-heard acronym of IYOP (eye-op). …

You might not know this is the International Year of Older Persons, with the catchy but little-heard acronym of IYOP (eye-op). Now if we were in the International Year of Sex or the International Year of Alcohol, no worries, there would have been saturation coverage from the preceding December.

Old - despite the venerability of leading players in our current Irish tribunals, or Tina Turner and Cher cavorting in gym-toned glory around concert stages - is still not exciting.

But this last year of the millennium is the United Nations-decreed time in which governments and social policy creators should look at one of the biggest challenges for the world in the 21st century - the phenomenon known as "the ageing of the ageing".

Prof Gary Andrews, the UN's Special Adviser on Ageing, is, at 60, on the cusp of this in his own life. A specialist in geriatric medicine, he says the greying of the older population is going to hit society and its purses hard in the next century.

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"With birth rates and fertility falling everywhere, the whole structures of population are undergoing fundamental change," says this genial Australian. "The last 50 years has been very different in terms of population and ageing from what the next 50 years will bring. The total number of people aged 60 and over in 1998 was 580 million across the world. In 2050 there will be almost two billion."

The primary issues will be care provision and "active ageing" - translated as not sidelining people from active society simply because of their date of birth. The practical applications of this philosophy are to be discussed at a summit featuring 15 experts on ageing in the South Korean capital, Seoul, in June. Their recommendations are due to be published in August.

The statistics do give pause for thought. Every month, one million people on Earth reach the age of 60 - 80 per cent of them in the "first" or richer, industrialised world.

By 2030, several Western countries will have one third of their populations in this age bracket. This would represent a huge charge on the public purse under current norms and understandings of retirement and old age pensions. In Ireland, the cost of long-term care for the elderly is expected to triple in the next 30 years, from £877 million annually to £2.7 billion. A recent report by insurance and actuarial organisations estimates the number of people aged more than 75 in this country will increase by 70 per cent in the same period.

However, the most dramatic increase will be in the developing or "majority" (more populous) world, where the 60-plus population will multiply by a factor just over nine, between 1998 and 2050 - from 171 million to 1.6 billion.

But in terms of "the ageing of the ageing" (going from 60 to 80), the biggest difference between our current situation and the near future will be the number of people over 80. Last year 66 million people worldwide were over 80. The projection for 2050 is a six-fold increase to 370 million.

Women in particular are touched by this trend. UN researcher Stan Bernstein reports that in the more developed countries of Europe, women over the age of 80 will be a growing share of total populations.

The theme for IYOP is "a society for all ages", defined as one which adjusts its structures and functioning, as well as its policies and plans, to the needs and capabilities of all. Andrews says his expert group's aim is to persuade policy-makers globally to start introducing legislation and social programmes to take account of the huge demographic change. They also hope to change the mass-media images of ageing, from, in many cases, dependent, eccentric, unattractive people. The case of a 66-year-old man ostracised because of his relationship with a woman in her 30s, discussed in the media this week, demonstrates just how prejudiced are general attitudes to the elderly.

Andrews is well aware that his major challenge is one of image. "The trouble is that it isn't a sexy issue. People don't want to think about it at a personal level. That attitude tends to change as we get up in decades and it turns out to be not so bad. Across the board we need to remove myths that linger about decay," he says.

"When the first international conference on ageing was held in Vienna in 1982, it was a very high-powered and interesting assembly. Delegates from 150 countries met for two weeks. There was not one word about it in the press. The Secretary General of the time turned up, and happened to mention sex and alcohol in his speech. That did it. The agencies picked it up and the next day the conference was on front pages around the world," he says.

Still, he is averse to getting ageing into the media via what he typifies as "the 80-year-old granny on a Harley Davidson".

"We need to get away from the idea that it is weird and wonderful. The important thing is that people of 80 have their health and strength."

Prof Andrews's UN unit works out of New York. He is also director of the Centre for Ageing Studies at Flinders University, South Australia