The world's population could stabilise at almost 11 billion in the year 2200, according to a projection released here yesterday in a UN study. The figure was based on a "medium-fertility" scenario outlined in population estimates which are issued every two years by the Population Division of the UN department of economic and social affairs. The present total is about 6 billion.
"While it is certain that the world population will continue to grow significantly in the medium term, there is less certainty in the longer term," the report said.
The medium-fertility scenario assumes that fertility will stabilise at replacement levels of slightly above two children per woman. This theory points to a world population of 10.8 billion people by 2150, stabilising at nearly 11 billion people around 2200.
However, the low and high fertility scenarios predict a large difference - from 3.6 billion persons in 2150 to 27 billion in 2150.
"This range of potential demographic outcomes underscores the difficulty in focusing on any particular scenario, and also highlights the critical importance of current policies and actions for the long-range future of the world population," the report said.
It noted that according to the medium-range scenario, population growth would continue in all major regions except Europe. In 1995, Europe's population stood at 728 million persons. By 2150, it is projected to fall to 595 million, a decline of 18 per cent.