Thorp, British Nuclear Fuel's flagship reprocessing plant at Sellafield built at a cost of £1.96 billion, could fail to cover its future running costs, an independent study has claimed.
The study, released today and commissioned by British Nuclear Free Local Authorities, calls into question BNFL's economic justification for continuing the practice of "rapidly increasing international plutonium stockpiles".
The NFLA, which represents about 100 authorities, said this was "adding to nuclear proliferation risks". Adopting "prudent" criteria, the prominent nuclear industry analyst Mr Mike Sadnicki estimates with a throughput of as little as 400 tonnes of heavy metal a year, the plant could lose more than £100 million annually. On mid-range criteria, estimated loss is £7 million.
The only way losses can be significantly reversed is by making optimistic assumptions on key parameters. "However, the current plant shutdown puts back the prospect of achieving high throughput, and increased radioactive discharges required to sustain high throughput could prove politically and environmentally unacceptable," it says.
NFLA spokesman Mr Stewart Kemp noted that BNFL had admitted that parts of the plant were already showing "accelerated wear" and cited speculation that it has serious operational problems, which could mean that the close down for its first maintenance overhaul may have to be extended for up to a year. When the plant was allowed to go into full production in August 1997, it was stated that Thorp (thermal oxide reprocessing plant) had an order book at £12 billion.
NFLA is submitting the study to the UK Environment Agency which oversees public consultation on the justification of future radioactive discharges. The findings put more pressure on the British government to review its nuclear-reprocessing role, it says, particularly with additional controversy of reprocessing of Georgian nuclear waste at Dounreay in Scotland.
Leeds councillor Mr Martin Hemingway, the NFLA chairman, said the study underlined the need for the government to insist BNFL opens Thorp accounts to public scrutiny. "It is time for this polluting and waste-creating business to stop. It is time for BNFL to be transformed from part of the problem to part of the solution."
Mr Jim Innes, clerk to Britain's nuclear workforce combine, the NCNI, said the report was deeply flawed, while the current success of Thorp was indicated by almost 2,000 union members employed in the plant. "A few months ago BNFL handed over its latest nine-figure dividend to its shareholders and the Chancellor of the Exchequer made sure £100 million went straight into the National Health Service," he said. "We think that's good news."
Releasing the report, he suspected, was an attempt to hit headlines on a bank holiday and a frantic bid by NFLA to raise funds. "They are in terminal decline, losing members and money. Their one big hope is that Irish councils will bale them out. We think that's a bad investment."
BNFL said the report was based entirely on assumptions and speculations, leading to predictably incorrect conclusions. "The plant is currently undergoing routine planned maintenance which has no impact whatsoever on its projected throughput for the year," a company spokeswoman said.
Thorp had consistently bettered every throughput target since it first started operations in 1994 and was operating to rigorous international environmental standards. Its first 10 years of operation - processing 7,000 tonnes of spent fuel - was "fully committed", which would yield a profit of at least £500 million. About 40 per cent of the second 10 years capacity was already contracted. Contrary to an NFLA claim, Thorp was planning for "a net overall decrease in the volume of total discharges from the plant", she added.
