The IRA would not be pressured into a decommissioning gesture by the threat of suspending new institutions in the North, republican sources told The Irish Times last night. Describing the latest political developments as bizarre, senior republicans said the prospect of the institutions being put on hold defied all logic.
Claiming that the British government was trying to put pressure on the IRA by making preparations for suspension, republicans said this strategy was not going to work. Suspension after only eight weeks would "pull the rug" from under those elements of the republican movement which were arguing for a political way forward.
If the Executive was allowed to function successfully for two years, there would be very few people in republican circles supporting the resumption of armed struggle. But there was now a growing suspicion that the Ulster Unionists were interested only in isolating republicans politically rather than making the new institutions work.
The sense of frustration among republicans would be all the greater because the Executive at Stormont had been allowed to get off the ground in the first place. The February 12th date for the next Ulster Unionist Council meeting was not regarded as a decommissioning deadline - "it doesn't feature in any agreement".
Republican sources revealed that they had "very deliberately" adopted a low-key approach this week and curtailed their public comments on the political situation. They did not want to "push Trimble further into the corner that he is in".
Their message to unionists was: "This thing is working, give it a chance. Let's give it a chance." There had been "no real party political issues" on the Executive. The parties had resisted any urge to take unfair political advantage.
Meanwhile, there was a view in Northern political circles last night that Gen de Chastelain's report on Monday afternoon would "fall between two stools" - positive in tone but unable to state that guns had been handed over. There were differing expectations as to the likely stance of the British and Irish governments in the aftermath: some observers forecast action by Tuesday, with others predicting a delay.
"Suspension won't occur until it's clear that David Trimble has to be saved from the party or from himself," according to mainstream nationalist sources. If Mr Trimble was about to resign or if there was a firm expectation that he would be overthrown at the UUC meeting, then the Northern Secretary could be left with no other option.
In the meantime, there is an expectation that the Executive will hold its scheduled meeting next Tuesday and might even meet the following Tuesday, just days in advance of the UUC meeting. But there had been "very little discussion" on what form a suspension would take. London was looking at a variety of options and sources recalled that Mr Trimble had continued as shadow First Minister following the resignation of Mr Seamus Mallon.
SDLP sources privately dismissed suggestions that the party would consider going ahead in an Executive alongside the unionists but without Sinn Fein, unless there was a breach in the ceasefire or the May deadline for decommissioning was not met. Meanwhile, it is understood that what senior officials called "quiet contacts behind the scenes" were under way to avert a collapse. Pressed as to whether a suspension was likely, official sources said: "Let's see what happens by Monday."