Reassurances from the Taoiseach to the unions have proved insufficient, writes Chris Dooley
The immediate future of social partnership remains in the balance following yesterday's meeting of the Siptu national executive in Dublin.
Pre-negotiation "jitters", not to mention tactical manoeuvring, are a normal part of the build-up to talks on a national partnership deal.
Eighteen months ago, for example, Siptu pulled out of upcoming pay talks after Mary Harney said the Progressive Democrats' participation in the Government would be in question if it failed to liberalise bus routes and break up Aer Rianta.
No one really doubted, however, that by the time talks began Siptu would have secured certain reassurances and would be back inside the partnership tent.
And that, of course, is how it turned out. This time it's different, however, and the threat posed to continued partnership is real.
An explanation of how it has come to this must begin with the dispute at Irish Ferries, over that company's plan to lay off hundreds of unionised seafarers and replace them with cheaper labour from eastern Europe.
Irish Ferries is not the first company to seek to replace well-paid staff with outsourced, agency workers.
But for a variety of reasons, not least the public support shown for Irish Ferries by the employers' body Ibec, the dispute has become a watershed one.
At Siptu's biennial conference in Cork this month, speaker after speaker asked what was the point of social partnership if it did not prevent the displacement of existing workers with others earning as little as €3 an hour.
What was most striking, however, was the enthusiasm shown by delegates for the prospect of a return to go-it-alone collective bargaining. Delegates decided to postpone a decision on entering talks pending clarifications from the Government on what it proposes to do to maintain employment standards.
That clarification was duly delivered at the weekend by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.
In a letter to Irish Congress of Trade Unions (Ictu) president Peter McLoone, he restated his commitment to avoiding a "race to the bottom" in the pay and conditions of workers.
But Mr Ahern went further than he had done in previous statements. He acknowledged that, despite a range of existing employment protection legislation, new measures were needed.
And he promised that the Government would engage with unions on a whole range of issues from the need for proper resourcing of the State's labour inspectorate to stiffer penalties for employers who exploit workers. The letter amounted to a strong statement of intent by the Taoiseach, but clearly Siptu wants more.
The union is now likely to ask Ictu to delay a decision, due to be taken at a special conference tomorrow, on entering talks pending further clarification.
Formal negotiations on a successor to Sustaining Progress were not due to begin until November 17th, so there is still time to save the process.
However, it is difficult to see what further assurances Mr Ahern can give, short of making concessions to Siptu which would properly be a matter for the negotiations themselves.
In the meantime, the partnership process may become impossible to manage.
Other unions may look with resentment at the special attention being given to Siptu's problems and demand that they, too, have their concerns addressed before talks even begin.
Many Siptu activists, on the other hand, are tired of "carrying the can" for other unions when partnership fails to deliver.
They believe some unions loudly proclaim their opposition to partnership in the comfortable knowledge that Siptu will deliver a deal, beneficial to all, in any event.
A repeat of that scenario, however, has never been in more doubt.