A HIGH-RANKING French official has outlined what he believes could be the resolution of the crisis over the Lisbon Treaty, in a note published by the European Parliament's office in Paris.
Jean-Guy Giraud, the former director of the office who is now special adviser in charge of following ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, quoted non-official Irish sources saying the Government would propose a three-part solution to the European Council on October 15th.
Under the proposed solution, the council would adopt a political declaration confirming that the treaty does not endanger Irish neutrality nor the rule on unanimity concerning fiscal policy, and that it would not force Ireland to legalise abortion.
After a second Irish referendum, the council would decide that all member states would continue to be represented by a commissioner after 2014.
The second referendum could take place in the autumn of 2009, which would postpone the treaty entering into force until 2010.
Mr Giraud foresaw several "difficult problems" with the proposal. Although article 17 section 5 of the treaty would make it possible to reassess the scheduled reduction in the size of the commission, "it will be very difficult to obtain unanimous agreement of member states on this point even before the treaty takes effect," he wrote.
Streamlining the commission was part of an "institutional package" which also involved vote-weighting within the council and parliament.
Legally, it was hard to see how the council could modify part of a treaty that had not even come into force. At best, the council could declare its intention to study the question once the treaty took effect. If the treaty does not come into force until 2010, the parliament to be elected next year will have 736 members, as foreseen under the Nice Treaty, as opposed to 751 members under Lisbon.
The EU Commission was due to be replaced in November 2009, but it might be necessary to wait until 2010, so the number of commissioners could be determined by the Lisbon Treaty. These delays could have a negative effect on European public opinion, strengthening the Eurosceptic vote in the June 2009 parliamentary elections, Mr Giraud warned.
A solution is beginning to emerge, but "big political and legal difficulties remain". In view of the problems created by the Irish No, "completion of the ratification process in Sweden and the Czech Republic . . . before the October 15th European Council could help the Irish government . . . ," wrote Mr Giraud.