Drapier is not going to write this morning about the by-election. By the time these words are read the trends will be clear enough and in any event Drapier has already made his own prediction.
It was an interesting by-election. The three major parties dominated, as Drapier expected they would, and all Drapier will say at this stage is that it is now increasingly clear that it is candidates rather than parties which make the most impact in by-elections. National trends count for little, and there may be a message in this as we prepare for local and European elections.
One of the things about living through a period of rapid change is that nobody really notices at the time how much or how quickly things are changing. Drapier has been in these Houses for a good long while, but in his view the rate and pace of change in here has been more marked in the past five years than in the previous 70.
TV is in part responsible for opening up the place, not just the nightly Oireachtas Report but more particularly the televising of major set-piece events like the election of a Taoiseach or the pieces of drama we have from time to time, such as the fall of the last government. Soon, with digital TV, the public will have direct access to all parliamentary activities, including committees. The cynics may sneer, but the principle is important - that people can see directly what is going on in their own parliament.
The biggest change however is that now at last we have a real committee system, or at least the makings of one. Different shapes and types of committees have been experimented with this past 20 years, but now at last in Drapier's view we are starting to get it right.
It is ironic that the committee which has made most of the running this past while is the oldest of all our committees - the Public Accounts Committee. Its handling of the AIB DIRT tax case has been impeccable and what happens over the next few months may well set the guidelines for the future development of a comprehensive and searching committee system that can transform the nature of our parliament.
In all of this Drapier gives much of the credit for what is happening to Jim Mitchell. Jim has enormous energy, good attention to detail, a strong sense of parliament and a sharp nose for publicity. All of these qualities are important in a committee chairman - there is no point in doing good work if nobody notices (not in politics anyway), nor is there much point in starting strongly if you don't have the stamina to finish the job, and most of all there is little point in facing up to specialists and well-advised witnesses if your own homework is inadequate.
So far, Jim's committee has met these criteria and the fact that the Dail reacted so quickly to the committee's request for greater powers is a clear recognition that it is doing a good job, but that, as yet, that job is only half done and we are sailing on uncharted waters.
Drapier has always argued that if the Dail and Seanad want to be seen as relevant to the lives of the people we will have to fight and change to make it so. Jim Mitchell's committee is a good example of this and Drapier applauds and supports Jim in his efforts, as he does Des O'Malley, who has given point and vigour to the Foreign Affairs Committee.
One of the upcoming items facing both Dail and Seanad committees concerns the reaction of members to the proposed government legislation - the Standards in Public Offices Bill. With the recent publication of Lord Neill's report on public life in Britain there is plenty of food for thought, but unless the politicians themselves, through their committees, take control of the process we will end up having the rules written for us by the Department of Finance or the lawyers and the end result could well be so legalistic and suffocating that nobody will want to choose politics as a career. Drapier hopes colleagues will take the issue seriously and that we will not live to regret our inaction later.
Drapier was delighted to see Michael McDowell appointed to chair the committee on the establishment of a new financial services regulator. Michael has a strong sense of public service and his combination of legal and political skills should make him an ideal chairman. Nor is he likely to dilly or dally and we can expect an early and, almost certainly, a definitive response.
Wearing his political hat he must be looking with bemusement at the virtual wipeout of his old party. It is surely one of the ironies of politics that at the very time his colleagues, and especially Mary Harney, are performing so well in government, the public doesn't want to know them anymore. Drapier is not in the business of writing anybody off but unless a miracle happens the PDs seem set to join the other one-time mould-breakers of Irish politics - Frank MacDermot's Centre Party of the 1930s, Sean MacBride's Clann na Poblachta of the 1940s and Noel Browne's National Progressive Democrats of the 1960s in that political graveyard specially reserved for such efforts to upset the natural order of things.
Also this week we were given a close-up of the rawer, nastier side of Irish politics - the Sinn Fein Youth rally in Dublin. Drapier, like most colleagues, was in Cork canvassing last weekend but Jim Cusack's vivid account in this paper left no doubt as to the true nature of what happened. Drapier made his own inquiries during the week and they bore out what Jim Cusack had written.
The trouble is that these days it is not possible to question any aspect of Sinn Fein without having the Thought Police of the media jump down your throat. John Bruton suffered this fate when he raised legitimate questions about Gerry Adams, and the resultant rush to condemn Bruton must have made him wonder whether it was he or the Provos was the threat to peace.
The truth of the matter is that Sinn Fein has a sizeable following of people whose acquaintanceship with democracy and democratic methods is tangential at best. Its leaders may well be moving towards full commitment to democratic methods but it is clear from last weekend's events and from the reluctance of the IRA to be unambiguous about decommissioning its arms that there is still a great deal of ambivalence - if not worse.
Dublin people who saw last Sunday's antics were frightened and disgusted. It was new to them, especially the aggressive behaviour designed to intimidate. It was a face of Sinn Fein not often seen in the Republic, and the person who probably has most reason to be worried by it is Gerry Adams. It's strange there was no comment from him, no attempt to distance himself from something which did the image of his party great harm and left a very bad taste in its wake.