IRAQ: Iraq's national security adviser said yesterday that Iraq would descend into civil war if federalism was not entrenched in the constitution.
"Without federalism it means that no community interest has been addressed or fulfilled and therefore different communities will try to find and defend and fight for their rights," Mowaffaq al-Rubaie told Reuters in an interview.
"I am worried about that. Yes. Absolutely. With a civil war you can't say 'today we don't have a civil war, tomorrow a civil war erupted'. Civil war creeps into the country very gradually."
But underscoring deep divisions in Iraqi politics, several thousand supporters of the Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr marched through a district of the capital Baghdad denouncing federalism, saying it would rip Iraq apart.
Politicians are struggling to overcome sensitive issues such as federalism to meet an extended August 22nd deadline for presenting a draft constitution to parliament.
Kurds want to expand autonomy in their de facto state in the north, some Shias are pushing for their own region in the south, and Sunni Arabs are fiercely opposed to federalism.
January's election boycott left Sunnis with little representation in parliament and, as a result, limited influence in negotiations over the charter.
But Iraq's government, led by Shias and Kurds, wants to draw Sunnis into politics in an attempt to defuse the Sunni insurgency so the minority sect has some leverage.
Differences emerging among Shias could further complicate efforts to strike a deal.
"Federalism is very good for the Sunnis as well. Just imagine we have three provinces in the [ Sunni] triangle coming together in one region and that region enjoys all the rights of Kurdistan for example," said Mr Rubaie, a member of the Shia Dawa party, part of the ruling coalition.
"It is a federal system we are after and I think this is the only insurance policy for the unity of Iraq."
Supporters of Mr Sadr, who has led two uprisings against US and Iraqi forces, gathered in one of their largest protests in recent months to reject federalism.
"No to division! Yes to unity!" chanted the crowds as they marched through the poor Sadr City neighbourhood of northeastern Baghdad and Khadamiya and Bayaa, two other mainly Shia districts.
Facing relentless suicide bombings, assassinations and kidnappings, Iraqi leaders are banking on a constitution and elections planned for December to stabilise the country but sectarian tensions are fracturing politics.
Mr Rubaie shares the view of top Shia leaders like Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who suggested Shias should carve out their own federal region in southern Iraq.
Yesterday's demonstration seemed to show that many poor, urban Shias - Mr Sadr's major support base - disagree with Mr Hakim's vision of a federal Shia state.
"Moqtada al-Sadr's concern is that Iraq must be united, not divided," said Fatah al-Sheikh, a Shia member of parliament who is closely allied to Mr Sadr.
Mr Sadr has maintained a low profile since his Mehdi Army militia fought US troops in the southern city of Najaf last year.
Sunnis, once dominant under Saddam Hussein, want a central government with tight control over oil resources near Kurdish areas in the north and in the Shia south. - (Reuters)