"I wish we had a few more seats to sell," Mr Paul Walsh of Budget Travel said ruefully. After years of making available more capacity than the market would bear, Irish tour operators have miscalculated again in 1997. They cannot meet the demand for charter holidays to the sun.
It is bad news for the consumer, especially single people who were happily accustomed to ignoring the winter sales promoted by the tour operators and waiting until July and even August.
On Fridays the inevitable signs would go up in the travel agencies. "Late availability. Two weeks Corfu - £199." You had to be ready to travel at short notice, but you were getting the same holiday as somebody who booked in January or February, and at a steep discount.
The tour operators were not getting "brochure price". This had two bad effects as far as they were concerned. It built up resentment among customers who had paid the full whack and dented profit margins. Travel agents, the key distributors of charter holidays, were annoyed because their commissions are fixed: they get less for selling a discounted holiday.
Competitive pressures among the tour operators prevented them from controlling the market. That has now changed.
Two operators currently have an estimated 75 per cent of the market. First Choice (trading as Falcon and JWT) and Budget (bought from Granada by Thomson Holidays) dominate.
Mr Gerry O'Hare, publisher of Travel Extra, said: "They kept the figures very tight this year." He added, however, that they were constrained by the competition for accommodation in the European sun spots from continental operators.
Earlier this year Mr Paul Hackett, a lecturer in travel and tourism, estimated that capacity would be 390,000 seats to the sun in 1997. Mr Walsh of Budget estimates the total will be about 365,000.
"There is very little late availability, and no bargains."
A spokeswoman for Aer Rianta said the operators "got stung" last year by putting too much capacity on the market and were determined to correct matters this year. Still, an average weekend at Dublin Airport this summer will see about 200 charter flights arriving and departing.
Mr O'Hare said demand this year had been fuelled by another factor: the bad summer of 1996. Irish people who have had a rain-soaked holiday at home one summer will not wish to repeat the experience.
Another feature of this year is the increasing popularity of long-haul holidays. Mr Walsh said Budget doubled its capacity to both Barbados and Mexico, and both are sold out. Budget uses Aeroflot out of Shannon to reach Florida and the Caribbean.
Mr Walsh acknowledges that Aeroflot's reputation for service is not the highest, but it is punctual and cheap. Budget can offer a five-star hotel in Cancun, Mexico, for £715. The same hotel will cost £1,200 going over London with a different airline.
Spain is still the overwhelming favourite for Irish sun-seekers. But Mr O'Hare of Travel Extra said it will be mid-September at the earliest before there is any prospect of those signs going back in the travel agents' windows offering late bargains.