Mr David Trimble will come under strong pressure at tomorrow's meeting of UUP officers to drop his proposed disciplinary action against the three dissident MPs who have resigned the party whip, writes Frank Millar London Editor
Amid signs of a growing threat to Mr Trimble's leadership, supporters of the three MPs - the Rev Martin Smyth, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson and Mr David Burnside - plan to challenge any resumption of the disciplinary action at yet another special meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council, possibly in the middle of Mr Trimble's August holiday.
This became clear last night as pro-Belfast Agreement sources confirmed they were making formal overtures to Mr Donaldson about possible moves to re-unite the party around an alternative leadership team. The decision to open direct dialogue with Mr Donaldson was made last weekend after the second meeting of a group of pro-agreement Assembly members and other senior party figures who have apparently concluded that Mr Trimble cannot hope to lead the party into any fresh Assembly election.
Some of those involved in the plotting have featured previously in failed attempts to sponsor a "dream ticket" leadership team comprising Mr Donaldson and Sir Reg Empey. Trimble loyalists believe similar moves now will meet the same fate because Sir Reg would not oppose Mr Trimble for the leadership and, they calculate, because Mr Donaldson would not be prepared to serve as deputy to Sir Reg even if a vacancy occurred.
However, the sense of a serious question mark now over Mr Trimble's position was further reinforced last night with a report that a previously loyal supporter in his Upper Bann constituency has also held private discussions with Mr Donaldson about the need to end the party's divisions. Mr Donaldson yesterday challenged Mr Trimble to address that issue and reflect on his embarrassing legal defeat in the High Court on Monday ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the officer team.
It is understood Mr Trimble convened the meeting in the aftermath of the High Court ruling that the suspension of the three MPs was invalid. Mr Donaldson will be at the meeting which the Rev Smyth, as party president, would expect to chair. Having vowed to have the three MPs expelled from the party, a decision to discontinue the disciplinary action would be seen as an embarrassing retreat by Mr Trimble. However, the Ulster Unionist leader will have to calculate whether he can count on enough of his traditional supporters to see the action through and uphold it against any appeal by the three MPs to the party executive in September.
Crucial to that calculation will be the disposition of two officer colleagues, Sir Reg and the party's MEP, Mr Jim Nicholson, who were both absent from the meeting at which the original and now disbarred disciplinary committee was appointed.
The decisive voice for Mr Trimble might be that of his former deputy Lord Kilclooney (John Taylor). While critical of the decision of the three MPs to resign the whip, he has warned of the consequences for the party of any attempt to expel them.