The political process could be facing another "major crisis" as supporters of Mr David Trimble last night struggled to gain him the necessary votes to reinstate him as First Minister.
Last night Ulster Unionist whips and Trimble supporters had not given up hope of persuading a sufficient number of anti-Belfast Agreement members to back the Ulster Unionist leader, but they conceded that the odds appeared to be stacked against such a result.
Northern Ireland could be on the threshold of new and divisive Assembly elections if Mr Trimble loses the vote.
The Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, will be faced with the option of calling elections or amending the legislation to ensure Mr Trimble can be restored as First Minister.
The British government is anxious to do what it can to ensure Mr Trimble's reinstatement, including changing the legislation so that a weighted overall majority rather than a majority of both nationalists and unionists would be required in the Assembly for First Minister votes.
"The danger here is that this could stretch the credibility of the Belfast Agreement to breaking point," warned one senior source last night. A British government source added that the political process would be on the verge of a "major crisis" if Mr Trimble lost today's vote.
Mr Trimble's chances of winning today were dealt a serious blow yesterday after Assembly member Ms Pauline Armitage declared she would oppose his reinstatement. On Wednesday night she indicated that the decommissioning body had provided her with some reassurance about the IRA action on arms. Mr Trimble's remaining chance of re-election appears to rest on MLA, Mr Peter Weir, voting for him.
Last night Mr Weir was refusing to say how he would declare, but in a largely negative article in today's Irish Times Mr Weir indicates his deep scepticism about the IRA's initiative on decommissioning last week.
The key to addressing his concerns lay with the decommissioning body, the IRA and the British government, he added.
One of the two MLAs from the Women's Coalition, Ms Jane Morrice, is prepared to redesignate herself as unionist ahead of today's vote, but if both Mr Weir and Ms Armitage vote No, and all the other anti-agreement unionists vote as expected, Mr Trimble will still lose.
