Turnout in presidential poll estimated at 1.5m

Prof Mary McAleese is likely to be declared elected as the eighth President of Ireland this evening, after the counting of some…

Prof Mary McAleese is likely to be declared elected as the eighth President of Ireland this evening, after the counting of some 1.5 million votes cast in a relatively low turnout.

Late last night the political parties estimated the turnout at under 60 per cent, with some believing it would be under 55 per cent. This would be considerably lower than the 64 per cent poll in the 1990 presidential election.

Participation in the referendum on cabinet confidentiality is expected to be lower still, after reports from around the State that many voters, confused by the proposal, returned or did not fill in the referendum ballot paper.

Opinion polls have suggested that the Government proposal to allow the disclosure of details of cabinet discussions only in very limited circumstances will be approved. But the level of confusion makes the result difficult to predict.

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An exit poll conducted by Lansdowne Market Research for RTE's Prime Time programme yesterday predicted a clear win in the presidential election for Prof McAleese, as predicted in all recent polls. The programme did not broadcast precise figures, but said the findings were consistent with recent opinion polls.

The low turnout, however, left some small hope in Ms Mary Banotti's camp that the survey results might not be replicated when the votes are counted.

A turnout of under 50 per cent was predicted last night in many areas. These included Kilkenny, both Donegal constituencies and Ballinasloe, Co Galway. Turnout in Ballina, Co Mayo, was estimated to be about 45 per cent, the lowest ever recorded in the town.

The Co Clare turnout was estimated at 45 per cent, that in Sligo town under 45 per cent and in Mullingar, Co Westmeath, about 40 per cent.

Polling stations across both Kildare constituencies were predicting a turnout of 41 per cent. This compares with 63.1 per cent for the last presidential election, when Kildare was a single constituency.

In the large urban areas of Dublin and Cork, voting was estimated to have been above 50 per cent.

The counting of votes will begin at 9 a.m. today in 29 centres throughout the State. Results from these centres will be sent by fax to St Patrick's Hall in Dublin Castle, where they will be aggregated.

A first-count declaration is not expected until late afternoon, but the result should be discernible from the tallies by lunchtime, unless it is very close. Eamon deValera was born in New York, Erskine Childers was born in London while Prof McAleese was born in Belfast.

The new President will be inaugurated in Dublin Castle on Monday week, November 11th.