IRAQ: The delay in forming a government is holding up the drafting of a new constitution - which in turn might mean fresh elections for another transitional assembly, writes Michael Jansen
Iraq's transitional national assembly adjourned in confusion yesterday after three hours of acrimonious debate over the choice of speaker.
It is not clear if Shia, Kurd, and Sunni legislators will be able to reach a consensus on the speakership before the 275-member legislature reconvenes for its third session on April 3rd, more than two months after they were elected.
Legislators argue that a Sunni should be given the post but cannot agree on a candidate, who must be elected by a simple majority.
Although the Shia United Iraqi Alliance, with 148 seats, can impose its nominee, Fawaz Jarba, most of the 17 Sunni deputies and 77 Kurds favour Adnan Janabi, a former minister and ally of outgoing premier Iyad Allawi, who refuses to join the government.
Sunni deputies have not been able to put forward an alternative.
The crisis erupted on Monday when tribal sheikh Ghazi Yawar, the interim president, said he would prefer to become one of the two vice-presidents rather than speaker. He claims the speakership will not give the under-represented Sunni community enough political clout.
Eighty-five per cent of Sunnis did not vote in the January 30th poll because of insecurity in their areas, or due to a boycott called by some Sunni leaders.
The delay in choosing a speaker, the first task of the assembly, is causing the postponement of the election of the presidential council (president and two vice-presidents) empowered to select a prime minister to form a new government.
Until the government is inaugurated, the new parliament will not be able to undertake its main task: overseeing the drafting of a new constitution. This is scheduled to be completed by August 15th, so that Iraqis can vote on it in a referendum set for October 15th.
The Shia Alliance and the Kurdish bloc have decided that the chief of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Jalal Talabani, should be president, and the leader of the Shia Islamist Dawa movement, Ibrahim Jaafari, should be premier. But there is deep disagreement over the allocation of the oil, foreign, finance, interior and defence ministries.
Last week Mr Talabani's longtime rival, Massoud Barzani, who heads the Kurdish Democratic Party, put forward fresh demands so that he would not be marginalised. The Kurdish bloc is now asking for the deputy premiership, and two of the five major ministries. Since one of these posts is meant to be filled by a Sunni, this would leave the Shia Alliance with only two of these ministries, although it has twice as many seats as the Kurdish bloc. The Kurds also want the deputy prime minister to have powers equal to the prime minister.
For eight weeks Kurds and Shias have been dickering over the Kurds' demands that their peshmerga militia should provide security in the Kurdish region; that Kurds be settled in the city of Kirkuk, where there is a communal balance between Kurds, Arabs, and Turkomen; and that Kirkuk and its oilfields be annexed by the Kurdish provinces.
The Kurds are determined to reach a deal with the Shias ahead of the election of the presidential council - they have the greatest leverage at this juncture, as two-thirds of the assembly must approve the presidency council.
If this parliament fails to produce a constitution on time, there will be a fresh election for another transitional assembly on December 15th, delaying by a year the process of creating a new Iraqi polity.
Reuters adds: President Bush predicted yesterday that Iraq's parliament would choose a new government soon.
In a speech in the White House Rose Garden, Mr Bush spoke optimistically about the future of Iraq and said it would serve as an example of freedom in "a long-troubled part of the world.
"The trend is clear: freedom is on the march," Mr Bush said.