The number of people who don't know how they will vote in the forthcoming EU referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has risen for the third successive time and now accounts for almost two-thirds of the electorate, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll. Stephen Collins, Political Editor, reports.
The poll shows that the number of people in the Don't Know category has risen by two points to 64 per cent, compared with the last Irish Timespoll in October 2007.
Support for the Yes side has increased by one point to 26 per cent, while the number intending to vote No has declined by three points to 10 per cent.
The pattern over polls going back almost three years shows a steady rise in the Don't Know category from 42 per cent in March 2005, to 64 per cent now. The latest poll also shows a high degree of dissatisfaction among voters at their level of knowledge about what is contained in the Lisbon Treaty.
One of the surprises in the poll is that supporters of the Green Party, which opposed the last five EU treaties, are more supportive of the Lisbon Treaty than the supporters of Fine Gael, which has strongly backed the Yes campaign in every European referendum going back to 1972.
Among Green voters, 30 per cent say they will vote Yes to the treaty while just 11 per cent intend to vote No. The figure for Fine Gael voters is 28 per cent Yes and 10 per cent No.
The Yes campaign does best among the small cohort of PD voters with 34 per cent saying they will vote Yes, closely followed by Labour voters with 33 per cent saying Yes and Fianna Fáil voters showing 32 per cent support. The only group where the No campaign is ahead is among Sinn Féin voters where 21 per cent are intending to vote No and 15 per cent Yes.
In class terms the strongest support for the Yes campaign comes from the better off ABC1 voters where 32 per cent intend to vote Yes and 9 per cent No by comparison with 20 per cent of working class C2DE voters who intend to vote Yes and 10 per cent No. Among farmers 27 per cent favour the Lisbon Treaty while 8 per cent say they will vote against.
Men are significantly more likely to vote Yes to the treaty than women, with 31 per cent of men in support against 20 per cent among women. The number of women who don't know how they will vote at this stage is 72 per cent.
In regional terms the strongest support for the treaty comes in Dublin, closely followed by the rest of Leinster. Support is significantly weaker in Connacht, Ulster and in Munster. Urban voters are more likely to be Yes voters than those living in rural areas.
When asked if they were satisfied with their level of knowledge about what is contained in the Lisbon Treaty, a massive 68 per cent of people said they were dissatisfied with just 12 per cent expressing satisfaction and 21 per cent saying they didn't know whether or not they were satisfied.
One interesting finding is that 68 per cent of those who said they were voting Yes expressed satisfaction with their level of knowledge while that figure fell to just 22 per cent among those who are voting No. Not surprisingly, 88 per cent of those in the Don't Know category are dissatisfied with their level of knowledge about the treaty.
In terms of party support, Sinn Féin voters expressed most satisfaction with their level of knowledge, followed by Green voters. Non-party voters were happiest of all with their level of knowledge, while Fine Gael supporters were least satisfied.