The president of University College Cork has accused the Department of Finance of wanting to halve the number of extra third-level students over the next decade in order to "cap" higher education spending.
Dr Michael Mortell, speaking yesterday at a degree conferring ceremony, said a 1994-95 study by an expert group, carried out for the Department of Education, gave projections of third-level student numbers for the next 10 years. He asked why another study was being carried out now by a committee headed by Mr Donal de Buitleir of AIB.
"The answer lies in the attitude taken by the Department of Finance to the original study," he said. "They objected to the conclusions of the main report and insisted on their own view being incorporated into a minority report."
The expert study's majority report predicted 34 per cent growth in third-level student numbers up to 2006, followed by a decade of stability.
"The minority report, or the Department of Finance report, predicted a growth of 17 per cent, i.e., half that of the majority report," said Dr Mortell.
He said that in terms of numbers of places available for prospective students, the majority report, if implemented, would mean around 18,000 to 19,000 extra students being taken in by 2006. If, on the other hand, the minority Department of Finance report was acted on, only around 9,000 students would be provided for.
"In other words, if you have children, nieces or nephews or, indeed, if you want to return to full-time third-level education yourself in 10 years time, then they or you will have to compete in a situation where demand exceeds supply by 10,000 places.
"The `points system', or some variant of it, will be alive and well in 2006!"
Dr Mortell said the purpose of the new de Butleir committee was "to depress the projections and thus put a cap on spending". He went on to ask whether it was likely that the Department's projections were correct and the majority report "wildly optimistic".
He warned that the findings of the de Butleir committee could "drastically affect the future of this country as a whole and that of individuals.
"If it gets the numbers right, we have the basis for an expanding economy and wider prosperity. If it underestimates the numbers, the economy and prosperity will be choked off below the nation's potential."