CYPRUS: The United Nations has bluntly put it up to the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities to back the UN peace plan for the divided island.
If they do not do so by March 10th, the plan will be put, over their heads, to their respective peoples and, if they reject it, the international body has signalled it will cease trying to resolve the Cyprus problem for the foreseeable future.
The tough approach was outlined in Nicosia yesterday by the UN's Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan. His seamless transition from Strategy A to Strategy B was announced at the end of a 75-minute meeting with the outgoing Cyprus President, Mr Glafkos Clerides, the new President, Mr Tassos Papadopoulos, and the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mr Rauf Denktash.
Cyprus, which gained independence from Britain in 1961, has been divided between an ethnic Turkish north and Greek south since the Turkish army invaded in 1974, prompted by a coup in Nicosia engineered by the then military junta in Athens.
All efforts to broker reunification since then have foundered on the obduracy of one or other side. Last November, Mr Annan unveiled a new plan which seeks to give a substantial measure of autonomy to both communities under the umbrella of a single state.
Mr Annan returned to the island this week and presented the leaders with the third version of his proposal, which provides for the creation of a United Cyprus Republic, a bizonal, bicommunal federation of two largely autonomous constituent states linked by a weak central administration.
Strategy A set yesterday, the last day of Mr Clerides's presidency, as the deadline for acceptance of the plan; Strategy B extends the deadline but presents the leaders with two clear choices.
They must decide to accept or reject the plan, or to agree to put it to separate, simultaneous votes on March 30th. Before then they are free to negotiate and agree upon amendments and adjustments. This approach increases pressure on both sides to take hard decisions.
The Greek Cypriots said they are prepared to negotiate on the basis of the plan, dubbed the "Foundation Agreement," but called for fresh revisions. Mr Annan said it could be "touched up" only since "there is a very delicate balance . . . which cannot be broken".
Mr Denktash rejected the plan, arguing that the people who drafted it "do not know the problems of Cyprus".
One of his main objections is to the reduction of the area under Turkish Cypriot rule from 37 to 28.2 per cent of the island. This would necessitate uprooting 40,000 Turkish Cypriots and mainland Turkish settlers to allow for the return of 92,000 of the 180,000 Greek Cypriot refugees to 60 towns and villages now in the area occupied by the Turkish army in 1974.
The referendum idea creates a dilemma for Mr Denktash and Ankara's politico-military establishment which supports his demand for recognition for his breakaway state and the creation of a confederation of two independent, sovereign Cypriot states.
However, an overwhelming majority of the 80-90,000 Turkish Cypriots demand reunification under the Annan plan and EU membership. On Thursday, more than 50,000 attended a demonstration at the heart of the Turkish Cypriot sector of Nicosia demanding Mr Denktash's resignation.
Mr Papadopoulos is in a much stronger position. He can, theoretically, reject both plan and referendum. But this is unlikely. During his presidential inauguration address he called for "a united Cyprus within the European family". While a "solution would be a compromise", he also said it had to be "workable and viable".
His stand is boosted by Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party's support for the Annan plan. During his first visit to Athens since his election, Mr Papadopoulos strengthened his hand by convincing the Greek Prime Minister, Mr Costas Simitis, to drop his uncritical backing for the Annan plan and agree to strive for a better deal.
Mr Papadopoulos knows also that Cyprus will attain EU membership in May 2004 whatever happens. Although the EU has expressed a preference for the entry of a united Cyprus, it has accepted that the Greek Cypriot south will join on its own if there is no solution.
