US and UN officials have been expressing confidence that next week's meeting in Bonn of Afghan opposition forces will be able to reach agreement on setting up an interim administration.
The US representative for south and central Asia, Mr James Dobbins, on Wednesday, after a trip to Afghanistan, said he was "a good deal more optimistic than when I left that we actually have an opportunity to promote the early development of a broad-based government." Mr Lakdhar Brahimi, the UN special representative who has steered the process, has said that some 30 Afghan representatives are likely to attend the Bonn meeting.
It will be held in private, although diplomatic delegations from interested nations will have access. Crucial has been the willingness of the Northern Alliance to attend with groups it sees as ciphers for Pakistan and Iran and with whom it has previously been at war. Among the delegations in Bonn will be four main groups: The Northern Alliance, itself consisting of five groups, the largest of which supports President Burhanuddin Rabbani, Afghanistan's president before the Taliban forced him out. He is still recognised formally internationally as president. He will not be on the delegation, which is to be led by Mr Yunos Qanoni and Dr Abdullah, the alliance's interior and its foreign ministers respectively. Both are regarded as moderates, well disposed to coalition-building.
Also forces to be reckoned with in the Alliance are two of the warlords who now control Herat and Mazar-e-sharif respectively, Mr Ismail Khan, a man with a liberal reputation, and Mr Abdul Rashid Dostum. Their co-operation with any deal will be crucial.
The Northern Alliance is dominated by Tajik, Uzbek and Hazzara commanders and has links to Iran, India, and Russia.
The former King, Mohammed Zahir Shah (87), may not be present himself, but will be represented by an eight-member delegation, possibly led by Popalzai nobleman, Mr Hamid Karzai, an influential Pashtun voice.
The "Cyprus process" represents a rival exiled, predominantly Hazara faction to that of the king, with links to the controversial former commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
The "Peshawar Convention" brings together leading elements from Pashtun tribes in southern Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its best-known figure is the former guerilla leader, Mr Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani. It is close to Pakistan, particularly its intelligence services.
The meeting is seen as the kick-off to the establishment of an interim government and eventually convening a Loya Jirga.
