UN:The world will pass a demographic milestone next year when for the first time most of its population will be living in cities, according to UN predictions.
In a report published yesterday, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) says more than 3.3 billion of the Earth's 6.6 billion inhabitants will live in urban areas by 2008, swelling to five billion - or 60 per cent of predicted world population - in 2030. The most dramatic increase will be experienced in developing countries, often, the report points out, in cities situated in low-lying coastal areas at risk from flooding triggered by global warming.
The report, The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth, paints a grim future unless governments and urban planners adopt a comprehensive long-term strategy to cope with the challenge of increased urbanisation. "The changes are too large and too fast to allow planners and policymakers simply to react," it says.
Without adequate planning in developing countries, the UNFPA warns, rising urbanisation will create massive slums, accelerate environmental problems and may lead to radicalisation among the young. Already, more than a billion people - one-sixth of the global population - live in slums.
Between 2000 and 2030, it forecasts, Asia's urban population will double to 2.6 billion people, while Africa's will increase by more than double to 742 million from 294 million. In Latin America and the Caribbean the number of people living in towns and cities will surge to 609 million from 394 million.
"We have never seen urban growth like this in history in terms of its speed and scale," said UNFPA executive director Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. "Yet, the impact of future growth has not captured public imagination. And surprisingly, little is being done to maximise the potential benefits of this transformation or to reduce its potentially negative consequences.
"The vast urban expansion in developing countries has global implications and requires a global response. What happens in the cities of Africa and Asia and other regions will shape our common future."
Acknowledging that most cities already struggle to meet needs, Ms Obaid warned that many, particularly in developing countries, are chronically unprepared for such a dramatic increase in size.
"Many of these cities already have pressing concerns, including poverty, crime, lack of clean water and sanitation, and sprawling slums. But these problems pale in comparison with those that could be raised by future growth," she said.
The report stresses that urban growth "can and should be a force for good", pointing out that no country in the industrialised age has achieved significant economic growth without urbanisation. Governments should stop trying to resist the trend of increased urban living and instead focus on helping cities unlock their potential, it says.
"Cities concentrate poverty, but they also represent poor people's best hope of escaping it. Cities create environmental problems, but they also create solutions. To take advantage of these opportunities, cities need to prepare now for the coming growth. If they wait, it will be too late," added Ms Obaid.
While much attention has been paid to the rise of "megacity" conurbations with populations in excess of 10 million - such as Mexico city, Mumbai and Sao Paulo - the UN report says most growth will occur in smaller cities containing half a million inhabitants or fewer. "In response to this, greater attention - in the form of resources, information and technical capacity - must be geared to smaller cities," it advises, pointing out that many suffer a dearth of facilities required to cope with their burgeoning populations.
Speaking at the Irish launch of the report in Dublin yesterday, Sean Hand of the UNFPA said the urban poor must form a major part of any strategy for the future.
"With one billion people living in slums, 90 per cent of whom are in developing countries, it is clear that the battle to reach the Millennium Development Goals and cut extreme poverty will be waged in the world's slums," he said. "The UNFPA recommend, and I commend the Irish Government to add their voice to this, that we start working with the urban poor, empowering them to lift themselves out of poverty."
Instead of attempting to stem the tide of migration to cities, urban planners should set aside land with basic services like water, shelter and sanitation to accommodate population growth, the report says. It prescribes investment in education and health, including reproductive health and voluntary family planning, and the empowerment of women as some of the best ways to address problems associated with increasing urbanisation.
Drawing attention to the report's finding that most urban growth is the result of natural increase rather than migration, Irish Goodwill Ambassador for UNFPA Mary Banotti called on policy makers to shift their emphasis from preventing migration to delivering social services, improving access to reproductive health services and investing in women.
"The current level of unmet need for effective contraception leads to 70-80 million unintended pregnancies each year in developing countries," she said.
"Increased access to reproductive health services would also open possibilities for young women in education, employment and social participation."
The report also draws attention to large youth populations in cities of the developing world, particularly in urban slums. In several developing countries, half of all urban dwellers are under the age of 25, it says.
"Young people are the future and cities are where they can realise their dreams," said UNFPA director Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. "Failure to invest in urban youth will derail efforts to reduce poverty and increase the potential for urban crisis."