Support for the Belfast Agreement among the unionist community in Northern Ireland has dropped sharply, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. The release of paramilitary prisoners was the main reason for the decline in unionist support.
In Northern Ireland generally, the poll found that 56 per cent of people intend to vote Yes, with 25 per cent voting No and 19 per cent undecided.
When the figure for undecided voters is eliminated, the poll shows support for the agreement at 69 per cent, compared with 84 per cent in the last Irish Times/ MRBI poll conducted after the successful conclusion of negotiations on Good Friday. Opposition to the agreement has almost doubled, from 16 up to 31 per cent.
Among supporters of the unionist and loyalist parties who responded to the poll, 45 per cent declared their intention of voting No, 35 per cent said they would support the agreement, and 20 per cent were undecided.
The net figures, eliminating the undecided, show 55 per cent of unionists and loyalists against the agreement and 45 per cent in favour. This echoes private polls conducted by unionists last week.
Support for a Yes vote in the Republic has substantially increased. When "don't knows" are eliminated, the poll shows 94 per cent support for the agreement in the Republic with 6 per cent against, compared with last month's figures of 75 per cent for a Yes vote and 25 per cent voting No.
The poll, directed by MRBI for The Irish Times with fieldwork in Northern Ireland by the Harris Research Centre, was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday this week among a sample of 1,000 electors in the Republic and 500 in the North.
Among supporters of the Ulster Unionist Party, the Yes vote has gone down 18 points to 52 per cent since the last Irish Times/ MRBI poll. The No vote has shown a small increase, from 16 up to 19 per cent, but the "don't knows" have more than doubled, from 14 to 30 per cent.
The proposed release of paramilitary prisoners was cited as a reason for their choice by 45 per cent of No voters (including 50 per cent of UUP supporters who were voting No). "The beginning of a move towards a United Ireland" was next, at 18 per cent.
Senior UUP sources said last night that the rapturous reception given to the Balcombe Street IRA prisoners at the Sinn Fein ardfheis had increased the No vote in unionist ranks by about 10 percentage points.
Much attention is now focussing on the position of the Ulster Unionist MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, who has declared his intention to vote No but has not participated in any rallies organised by the No campaign. He may be the only figure of substance in unionism with the ability to sway substantial numbers in favour of the agreement.
The core No vote in the Republic has fallen from 20 to 5 per cent in four weeks, while the percentage in favour has risen from 61 to 72 per cent. Meanwhile, the proportion of undecided voters has risen slightly from 19 to 23 per cent.
The change in public opinion in the Republic reflects the promotion of the Agreement by Government and opposition parties as well as Sinn Fein's near-unanimous endorsement of the Good Friday document and its decision to take seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Opposition to the agreement dropped sharply within all parties, especially Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, over the past four weeks.
Nationalists in Northern Ireland continue to be overwhelmingly in favour of the agreement, with 96 per cent of SDLP voters and 83 per cent of Sinn Fein adherents supporting a Yes vote.
Party voting intentions have altered somewhat since last month's poll. The UUP scores 23 per cent, compared with 30 in the last poll, with the SDLP on 24 per cent compared with 21 last time.
With a week left to polling day, the two governments and the UUP face a major challenge in attempting to secure a more convincing majority.
Pressure is likely to increase for Sinn Fein to make a declaration that the "war" is over, and for republicans to give concessionary signals to the unionists.