THE nine Ulster Unionist MPs, bare threatening to inflict a devastating defeat on Mr John Major at the end of today's crucial Commons debate on the Scott report. This became clear last night as Westminster manoeuvres and pre Anglo Irish summit negotiations became increasingly enmeshed.
As British officials prepared to meet Sinn Fein in Belfast this morning, senior Irish sources insisted there was no guarantee of a London/Dublin agreement to permit a summit to go ahead this week.
Members of the liaison group of Anglo Irish officials will resume the search for an agreed communique in London later today.
The UUP, meanwhile, raised she parliamentary stakes as another Conservative MP Mr Quentin Davies confirmed his readiness to vote against the government tonight. With at least three other Tory backbenchers expected to defy the whip, UUP votes could determine the outcome.
Mr David Trimble, the UUP leader, is expected to have talks with Mr Major and other ministers before an 8 p.m. meeting of his parliamentary party, at which a final decision will be made.
Although Mr Trimble has described the Scott report findings as "damning", a majority of his colleagues had originally favoured abstention. However, a game of parliamentary brinkmanship was signalled as senior unionist sources claimed there had been a shift in attitude over the weekend.
Ironically, tensions between the British government and the Ulster Unionists grew after the DUP threw Mr Major a lifeline, with the promise that its three MPs would abstain in tonight's vote.
The Ulster Unionists have been alarmed by an apparent convergence between the DUP and the SDLP in favour of elections providing what would be, in effect, a party plebiscite in the North.
Mr Trimble wants to maximise the role of an elected assembly or forum in any future negotiations about the North's future. Moreover, the UUP fears a party plebiscite would reproduce the conditions of the North's single "constituency European election, in which Mr John Hume and the Rev Ian Paisley would compete for poll position.
British and Irish sources last night maintained there was "much work still to be done" before Mr Major and the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, would be able to launch a fresh political initiative.
However, senior unionists sources suspect an emerging blue print which, in addition to an election providing an "index" of party support, might also provide prior intensive discussions involving all the parties, including Sinn Fein, as Westminster enacts the necessary legislation to enable the election; a referendum, North and South, seeking support for democratic principles and an end to violence, and a firm date for the commencement of all party talks following the election, with the Mitchell report possibly the first designated item on the agenda for those talks.
Senior DUP sources believe that, if Dr Paisley and Mr Hume agree the form for an elective process, Mr Major would over ride Mr Trimble's objections. And some UUP MPs anticipate difficulty for Mr Trimble in seeking to reject an election formula which does not accord with his own plan. Labour Party sources last night also observed that a decision to vote against the government over the Scott report would present the UUP with a painful decision on how to vote in a subsequent confidence debate.
Mr Major would face an immediate "confidence" vote if defeated in today's debate on Sir Richard Scott's report into the "Arms for Iraq" affair.
Moreover, a serious rift with the Ulster Unionists now would, cast fresh doubt on Mr Major's ability to survive the parliamentary term. Sir Teddy Taylor - another MP with doubts about the government's response to the Scott report - has predicted that Mr Major will be forced to go to the country in October.