United No parties set their sights on Assembly

If body language says it all, then the United Unionists were undoubtedly depressed after the referendum result

If body language says it all, then the United Unionists were undoubtedly depressed after the referendum result. Gone was the their usual ebullience. Instead, the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Bob McCartney looked solemn and serious, like politicians under pressure.

The humour, the laughter, the general craic that had characterised their campaign had evaporated. "We won this election," thundered Dr Paisley but it was hard to believe him. Mr David Trimble and Mr David Ervine, being congratulated by all and sundry, looked like the winners.

However, the United Unionists know they can't afford to let disappointment get the better of them. "As far as we are concerned, the Assembly election campaign begins today," said Ian Paisley jnr.

Over the next few days, they will be meeting to analyse the referendum result and their own campaign. They will concentrate on areas for improvement.

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They wisely set themselves only one target during the referendum campaign - to achieve a 26 per cent vote, which they said would indicate a majority of unionist voters. By their own calculations, the actual No vote of 29 per cent translates into 56 per cent support from the unionist community.

The United Unionists need around 30 members elected to the 108-seat assembly to do damage. As majority support is required from both unionists and nationalists for decisions, they insist that if they can win enough seats they can stop the establishment of North-South bodies, Sinn Fein members being appointed to the executive, and prisoners being released.

They have not made any final decision on whether they would sit in the executive themselves, but sources said it was unlikely and predicted they would boycott ministerial positions.

The United Unionists directed all their energies towards the referendum campaign and have not picked candidates for the elections yet. Neither have they decided whether candidates will stand for their own parties or on a single United Unionist ticket, although the latter option is more popular.

All parties are pleased at the way the campaign functioned. "It could have been a recipe for disaster, particularly with strong personalities like the Rev Ian Paisley and Bob McCartney. But things worked very smoothly and we were genuinely united," said a DUP member.

There are several factors which the United Unionists believe will lead to them repeating or improving their referendum performance and securing a majority of the unionist electorate at the polls next month.

Firstly, they believe that many of those who voted last Friday will not vote next month. Turnout was up 160,000 on last year's Westminster election. "A lot of those people are the sort who vote only once or twice in a lifetime," said a leading DUP member.

"They came out to vote for what they saw as peace and now will return to political hibernation for another 30 years. But those who voted No are not so apathetic. They are committed people who come out every election. They will be back on June 25th when the others are at home."

The second factor the United Unionists argue will favour them is that thousands of unionists voted Yes because they trusted Tony Blair and believe that Sinn Fein will not be allowed into government unless the IRA decommissions. Mr Blair's draft legislation on the subject will be published before the assembly elections, the No campaigners point out, and they believe that those unionists who gave him "the benefit of the doubt" will be disappointed.

"The legislation will be vague and woolly and say something like the parties will pledge to work towards decommissioning and there should be decommissioning," said Mr McCartney. "It will let Sinn Fein and the loyalists off the hook and unionists will see that. A lot of soft Yes voters will switch back to us."

The third factor the United Unionists believe will help them is that the support the Yes campaigners received from influential outside figures during the referendum will be absent during the election campaign.

"Blair, Brown, Branson, Bono, Hague, Major, Clinton, even poor old Boris Yeltsin told people how to vote," said Mr McCartney. "They won't be able to do that in the elections. They won't be able to say - `vote for such and such in Upper Bann."'

"Saatchi and Saatchi designed the Yes posters free of charge. They won't be legally allowed to do the same for the assembly elections."

The United Unionists also insist that media coverage helped the Yes campaigners. A survey of the entire referendum campaign, just completed for Mr McCartney, shows supporters of the agreement receiving 69 per cent of newspaper and broadcasting coverage in Northern Ireland.

"There will be none of this carry-on in the Assembly elections. The media, legally, will be forced to be more balanced. The Representation of the People Act will see to that," said Mr McCartney.

However, equally powerful factors could give the advantage to the pro-agreement unionists. Firstly, they appear - post-referendum - to be the victors. They can correctly argue that they outpolled the Nos by more than two to one. Success breeds success.

Five years ago, nobody would have believed that seven out of ten people in the North could agree to a settlement. That result is remarkable, and even sceptical unionists will now be tempted to build on it. The tendency could well be to go with the flow rather than swim against the tide.

The momentum at the moment is with Mr Trimble. The UUP leader is on a roll. "The Yes campaign was successful in getting it into the psyche of people that voting for them was voting for peace," says a United Unionist. "If they can do that in the assembly elections, we could be in trouble." The United Unionists could already be too associated in the electorate's mind with a negative message.

Also the 160,000 new voters might just be galvanised enough to go to the polls once more to secure the agreement. And many No voters might be so disillusioned with Saturday's result that they will stay at home.

The other problem facing the United Unionists is candidates for the assembly. It is understood that many of the dissident UUP MPs do not want to stand for election. "They are coming to the end of their careers and couldn't be bothered with the hassle," said a UK Unionist.

"They don't want to end their days in a highly charged situation in the new assembly. We need them to stand because they are big names. With lower profile candidates, it would be harder motivating the electorate."

Much also depends on what the dissident republican paramilitaries do over the next month. If the poll takes place in a peaceful environment, the pro-agreement unionists will be strengthened. Violence on the streets would have the opposite effect, making many ordinary unionists uneasy and confirming them in old voting habits.