Urgent need to restart stalled treaty campaign

IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES: BRIAN COWEN faces many immediate challenges, including the Lisbon Treaty referendum, the national pay …

IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES:BRIAN COWEN faces many immediate challenges, including the Lisbon Treaty referendum, the national pay talks and falling revenues.

The Taoiseach's first task will be to get voters to pay attention to, and then pass the Lisbon referendum, if his new administration is not to be thrown into chaos within a month of its formation.

Over the last month, the Government's campaign - with the energetic exception of Minister of State, Dick Roche - has been in neutral gear, while Bertie Ahern embarked on an extended leaving of office.

Though other ministers had been instructed by Mr Ahern to mention Lisbon at every available opportunity, few of them have put their backs into the campaign so far.

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Now Mr Cowen must put fire in their bellies and make it clear that another Cabinet shake-up is more than possible after next year's local and European elections for those who fail.

Undoubtedly, too, he is going to have to get the message out to Fianna Fáil's heartland that Lisbon is not a remote issue, but rather one that has party political consequences, and not just national ones.

Meanwhile, the Exchequer's figures are likely to fall ever further behind expectation.

Following the summer break, ministers will begin the preparation of the spending estimates for next year and, with little fat to cut, the task is set to be tough.

Despite falling revenues, the State has not yet trimmed its spending habits. In the first four months of the year spending rose from €13.5 billion to €15.3 billion, and a similar rise is forecast for the remaining months of 2008.

Such discussions, and the "leaks" that emerge from them, will impact on the public consciousness as the winter approaches. There is a danger that difficult messages may have to be passed on to the public even before then, if ministers have to trim their sails mid-year.

At the same time, Mr Cowen will have to reach a deal with the unions, businesses and others in the national pay talks, complicated as they are by rising inflation.

The issues on the table are complex. Ireland has been losing international competitiveness; yet social problems hidden somewhat by a decade of prosperity still exist. Set against that backdrop, even though it is a longer-term project, will be Mr Cowen's belief that major reforms must be made in the public services. Mr Cowen will first no doubt set up a team of experts to lay down the exact requirements.

However, he will have to tread carefully. Fianna Fáil lost Dublin-based State workers' support after decentralisation was announced, and gained little elsewhere.

The new Taoiseach will also have to worry about his first electoral challenges: next year's local and European contests.

Back in 2004, Fianna Fáil - which suffered from the absence of leading figures otherwise engaged in the EU presidency - suffered a drubbing in the locals. He cannot allow the same to happen again.

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy is Ireland and Britain Editor with The Irish Times