US//Iran: Having given diplomatic warnings to Iran on its nuclear programme, the US is preparing for possible military action, writes Tom Clonan.
Iran has been given until June of this year to suspend all activities which might lead to the manufacture of fissile material suitable for use in nuclear warheads.
Meanwhile, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, has told the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the EU troika of Britain Germany and France that Tehran unreservedly claims the right to pursue nuclear enrichment programmes for the development of nuclear fuel. Such programmes inevitably yield fissile material suitable for nuclear weapons.
The question remains as to whether the IAEA, the EU, the US and the UN can trust Iran to confine its nuclear ambitions to exclusively peaceful ends.
Last week Pakistani information minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed admitted that rogue Pakistani nuclear expert Abdul Qadeer Khan had secretly sold Pakistani nuclear secrets and equipment to the Iranians.
Dr Khan's clandestine assistance to Iran is uncomfortably reminiscent of the way that he reputedly assisted the North Koreans to realise their ambitions to develop a viable nuclear weapon. In both cases, prior to Dr Khan's untimely interventions, Iran and North Korea had successfully developed sophisticated missile or delivery systems - but as yet had not developed the wherewithal to produce nuclear warheads.
Pakistan's declaration of Dr Khan's interests in Iran will have done little to generate trust between the ayatollahs and the international community.
Iran has also of late begun obstructing the work of IAEA inspectors by refusing them entry to suspected nuclear facilities.
Confirming US intelligence estimates, the Iranian government has also recently admitted that its nuclear facilities near the cities of Isfahan and Natanz have been located in specially built hardened tunnel complexes underground - under mountains, in fact - in order to protect them from aerial attack.
The conversion facility at Isfahan is believed to reprocess uranium ore concentrate - known as yellowcake - into uranium hexaflouride gas, which is then taken to Natanz for centrifuge enrichment.
In a parallel development, the IAEA recently complained that Iran is developing a heavy-water reactor plant at Arak. The plant could produce enough plutonium from spent fuel for a nuclear warhead within one year of its completion.
Intelligence reports indicate Iran may already have partially processed up to 40 tonnes of uranium at Isfahan and Natanz - enough for up to five such weapons.
Israel has been eyeing these developments uneasily. Having destroyed Saddam Hussein's Osirak nuclear facilities in a surprise air attack in 1981, and launched unilateral air assaults against Syria in September 2003, Israel has a reputation for pre-emptive air strikes.
Bearing this in mind, in light of recent weapons and aircraft procurement deals secured with the US, Israel, if so inclined, could shortly be in a position to destroy Iran's subterranean nuclear facilities at will.
In June last year, the Israelis closed a deal with the US government to buy up to 5,000 joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs) conversion kits including guided bomb units for use with specially designed one-tonne "bunker-buster" bombs.
These bombs - specifically the BLU-109 and BLU-119 - are designed to penetrate and defeat extremely hard-shelled and multi-layered underground complexes. They consist of advanced unitary penetrators and void-sensing hard target smart fuses. The advanced penetrators are capable of breaching 200 metres of packed earth or up to 10 metres of reinforced concrete and steel fortification. Once through the protective covering, the smart fuse detonates the bomb's payload of one tonne of high explosives. This secondary explosion generates a devastating shock and heat wave capable of navigating a labyrinth of subterranean passageways and chambers - destroying all within.
Interestingly, the JDAMs kits and weapons are design-compatible with the latest generation of US-manufactured F-15 I and F-16 I strike fighter aircraft. These have been modified to carry extra fuel cells, thus dramatically increasing their operational range and combat endurance.
Israel's air force recently acquired such aircraft from the US, with many in service with Israeli squadrons since 1998. Their recent acquisition place Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Arak well within range of Israeli and US strike aircraft deployed throughout the Middle East, Persian Gulf and Mediterranean.
The Israeli and US military have begun major joint air defence exercises in Israel. These involve Israel's Arrow II high-altitude anti-missile system in combination with the American Patriot missile system. The exercises are designed to counter a hypothesised Scud or Katyusha attack - or, more ominously, an Iranian Shahab I missile strike.
The timing of such joint endeavours sends a clear message to Tehran. If diplomacy fails and Iran fails to comply with international demands, the US and Israel are signalling their willingness and ability to use missiles and air strikes to achieve disarmament.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer. He lectures in the School of Media, DIT