US Democrats are mounting a final push to send president Barack Obama their landmark overhaul of financial regulations, but the death of a colleague and cold feet among Republican allies could postpone a final victory.
Democrats are set to vote on the bill in the House of Representatives today, where it is expected to pass easily.
They hope to pass the measure through the Senate by the end of the week so Mr Obama can sign it into law by the July 4th Independence Day holiday, but they could see final action slide into mid-July.
Senator Christopher Dodd, the Democrats' point man on the issue, said yesterday that it was "doubtful" the Senate would act by the end of the week.
That would mean several more weeks of uncertainty for the financial industry, which is bracing for tighter regulations, tougher oversight and diminished profits.
Still, analysts say it is a question of when, not if, the most sweeping rewrite of Wall Street rules since the 1930s becomes law. The bill, which aims to prevent a repeat of the 2007-2009 financial crisis that shook the global economy, is a top priority for Mr Obama and would give him and fellow Democrats a big legislative win ahead of November congressional elections.
It would force banks to reduce, but not cease, risky trading and investing, set up a new government process for liquidating troubled financial firms and establish a new consumer-protection bureau. It would saddle financial firms with a host of new regulations and reduce their profits.
Wall Street and many Republicans have tried to delay or water down the bill, but it has grown stronger during its yearlong journey though Congress as Democrats have ridden a wave of public disgust at an industry that has awarded itself fat paydays while the rest of the country struggles with high unemployment.
Democrats thought they had hammered out a final version of the bill during an all-night negotiating session last week. With no margin for error in the Senate, the death of Democratic senator Robert Byrd left them one vote shy of the 60 needed to overcome procedural hurdles in the 100-seat chamber.
On top of that, moderate Republicans who had previously backed the bill objected to an $18 billion tax that was added to the bill to cover its costs.
Mr Dodd and other Democrats reopened negotiations yesterday to remove that tax, replacing it with other funding sources. The bill now taps $11 billion from an unpopular bank-bailout fund and raises the amount that larger banks must pay to insure their customer's deposits.
That approach is not without its political risks. Republicans involved in the negotiations said that the $11 billion would fall on the shoulders of taxpayers, because it otherwise would be used to pay down the national debt.
But Mr Dodd and other Democrats do not expect them to back the bill. Instead, they are focused on the handful of Republican moderate senators - Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins - who had previously supported it.
Representative Barney Frank, who has led the reform effort in the House, said the three moderates helped to craft the new funding mechanism. He said he would not have bothered to change the bill unless the alterations would pick up the votes needed to pass the Senate.
Reuters