US business economists have grown more pessimistic about US economic growth during the first half of 2001 but expect the nation to skirt a recession, a survey released todaysaid.
The National Association for Business Economics said 55 per cent of the 131 members polled this month estimated economic growth of 1 per cent or less during the first six months of the year.
In January, only 10 per cent of the members surveyed expected growth below 1 per cent.
But despite the gloomier estimate, most members still say the US economy will not sink into a recession - commonly defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction.
In the April survey, 10 per cent estimated the US economy would actually contract in the first half of this year. None of the respondents expected a contraction when NABE surveyed its members in January.
The US economy grew 5 per cent in 2000 but lost significant steam as the year progressed. Growth fell to a 1 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, down from 2.2 per cent in the third quarter and off from 5.6 per cent in the second quarter.
The government's first report on US first-quarter gross domestic product will be released tomorrow. Economists estimate the economy grew at a 1.1 per cent annual pace in the first three months of this year.