US: Every day now new polls show President George Bush either level with or leading his Democratic rival in the US presidential election, and a majority of Americans consistently say they expect Mr Bush to win a second term. Conor O'Clery in New York reports
But they also reveal a trend that is worrying the Bush-Cheney camp: Mr Kerry is doing well in several of the key states which could decide the result.
The conventional wisdom is that to win the White House a candidate must take two of the three most important battleground states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
With 13 days of campaigning left, the Democratic challenger is in the lead in all three: by 47-43 percentage points in Ohio, by 49-47 in Pensylvania and 50-49 in Florida.
In New Jersey, which the Republicans have targeted in recent weeks as a possible defection from the Democratic camp, the latest polls show Mr Kerry still leading by four points in one poll and 13 in another.
In a presidential election that has become a slugging-match, the polls are contradictory, causing frustration for strategists and raising questions aboout pollsters' methods.
Nationally a New York Times/CBS poll yesterday showed President Bush leading Senator Kerry by one point - 47-46 per cent - among likely voters.
Yet the previous day a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll found Bush ahead of Kerry by 52 to 44 per cent among likely voters, an eight-point lead.
The differences may not in fact be that great. When the survey was widened to registered voters, the New York Times found a dead heat of 46 per cent for each candidate, and Gallup reduced Mr Bush's lead to three points, 49-46 per cent.
The independent, Mr Ralph Nader, gets 1 per cent support.
A Washington Post poll yesterday found a similar result, with Mr Bush getting 50 per cent of the likely vote while Mr Kerry has 47 per cent.
An unknown factor in this election is how many newly registered voters will actually go to the polls by November 2nd.
From anecdotal evidence collected travelling to background states such as Ohio, Nevada and Florida in recent weeks, it is evident that there has been an unprecedented surge of voter registration.
Many of the new voters, young people and minorities, are not fully represented in polls which are conducted only among people with home telephones, and do not include those who rely on cell phones for communication.
Another poll yesterday said blacks prefer Mr Kerry over President Bush by a nearly 4-to-1 margin, although their support for the Democrat is down slightly from that given to Mr Gore in 2000.
The New York Times poll indicated that voters have strong reservations about Senator Kerry as a politician who will say what people want to hear, but it also included a worrying trend for the President.
Mr Bush's job approval rating has fallen to 44 per cent, a low point for his term in office and far below the 50 per cent which conventional wisdom says an incumbent needs to stay in office.
A majority expressed disapproval of the way Mr Bush had managed the economy and the war in Iraq while favouring Mr Kerry to do a better job of ending the war, preserving social security and creating jobs.
Mr Kerry has clearly benefited from his strong performance in the three presidential debates, before which he was behind by 50-42 per cent, and since then both candidates have been directecting increasingly harsh accusations at the other.
Mr Bush has begun delivering a new stump speech in which he says people would be in greater danger if Mr Kerry were president as the Democrat had a "strategy of retreat" and would not take pre-emptive action before another attack.
The Massachusetts senator has been hitting back by issuing dire warning about cuts in social security and a possible return of the military draft.
Mr Kerry has seized on an article in the New York Times which quoted Mr Bush telling Republican donors that he was going to come out strong in a new term "with fundamental tax reform, tort reform, privatisation of social security."
The Democratic challenger said this meant that Mr Bush was planning a "January surprise" that could cost pensioners 45 per cent of their retirement benefits. He also warned of the great potential of the draft being introduced in a second Bush term.
Mr Bush has promised not to cut the cheques of pensioners or those approaching pension age in his plan to partially privatise social security.
He also accused Mr Kerry of using "old-style scare tactics" to win votes and flatly denied that he would reintroduce a compulsory call-up.