THE US is pressing the Quartet – comprising the US, UN, EU and Russia – to issue a call next week for the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.
The statement would conclude a meeting of the Quartet in Brussels, due be briefed by Washington’s envoy George Mitchell before he returns to the Middle East.
In a bid to win over the Palestinians – who complain that 19 years of talks with Israel have not produced their state – Mr Mitchell has said that the negotiations “should last no more than two years”.
With the aim of securing Arab backing, he observed that there could be simultaneous negotiations on the Syrian track.
To win over Palestinians, the US would guarantee that talks would be based on the 1967 borders and Israel would be given an assurance that it could annex major settlement blocs.
A Quartet declaration would put Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas under fresh pressure to restart negotiations while Israel continues to construct settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank and without an Israeli acceptance of the 1967 frontier as the basis of a deal.
He has, so far, refused to talk until Israel accepts these demands.
He faces conflicting pressures. Egypt is urging him to negotiate without conditions, while Saudi Arabia and the vast majority of Palestinians want him to stick to his demands.
If he capitulates, he could face a major revolt in his Fatah movement or widespread popular condemnation which could weaken his ability to negotiate.
The EU could ease him into talks if it persuades the US to adopt key elements of the declaration it issued last month.
The US could go along with the EU commitment to the creation of an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 border and Jerusalem as the capital of two states.
However there are two provisions in the EU statement which would create problems for Washington.
First, the EU declaration contradicts US support for Israeli annexation of settlement blocs.
The EU pledged “not [to] recognise any changes to the pre-1967 border including with regard to Jerusalem, other than those agreed by the parties”.
Second, the EU urged Israel to “immediately end all settlement activities”, a stand the Obama administration initially adopted but dropped due to Israeli opposition.
It is difficult to see how the EU can finesse its commitments without alienating the Palestinians, who warmly welcomed the EU declaration, and losing credibility on the international scene.
The EU could expect the support of Russia and, perhaps, the UN on the annexation, border and settlement issues.
A concerted EU-US effort to restart serious negotiations is essential if war is to be avoided.
Yesterday, Gaza-based Palestinians fired 10 mortars into southern Israel, causing no casualties or damage but undermining a ceasefire imposed by Hamas which rules Gaza.
Israel’s southern command head Yoav Galant told residents of the region that the current quiet was unlikely to last and to “prepare themselves for another round of fighting”.
