MUAMMAR GADAFY’S effort to defeat the rebels before international support can be organised seems to be paying off, with the uprising close to collapse as the US yesterday joined Britain and France in supporting a United Nations resolution to impose a no-fly zone over Libya.
A vote is expected this week, but is likely to come too late to support the rebellion. Yesterday Col Gadafy’s troops, backed by air power, moved into the town of Ajdabiya, clearing the way to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, 145 kilometres away.
Residents of the city were fleeing towards the border with Egypt.
Washington is facing accusations, particularly from the rebels, that the delay has given the Libyan leader the space he needed. “They have betrayed us,” said Ahmed Malen, one of the revolutionary volunteers pasting anti-Gadafy posters on walls in Benghazi.
“If they kill us all, the West will have blood on its hands. They do not believe in freedom. They are cowards.”
President Barack Obama will face criticism from Democrats as well as Republicans if the rebellion collapses.
France’s foreign minister Alain Juppé yesterday admitted a no-fly zone might now be too late.
“If we had used military force last week to neutralise some airstrips and the several dozen planes that they have, perhaps the reversal taking place to the detriment of the opposition wouldn’t have happened,” Mr Juppé told Europe-1 radio.
The Obama administration, already fighting two wars, was reluctant to join a third and challenged the value of a no-fly zone.
However after the Arab League countries met and agreed a request on Saturday for a no-fly zone, the US yesterday, along with Britain, France and Lebanon, supported a draft UN resolution to be presented to the UN Security Council.
Although victory by Col Gadafy would make a no-fly zone redundant, the draft resolution also includes measures that would remain in some degree relevant, mainly expanding sanctions, such as stricter enforcement of the arms embargo, freezing the assets of more members of the Gadafy regime and extending a travel ban and ordering countries to stop mercenaries flying from their airports to Libya.
A security council source, noting Col Gadafy’s advances, said time was “of the essence”. He acknowledged however that the security council was slow-moving and that while a vote could be held this week, it could spill over into next week. “The negotiations will be tough,” he added.
The US shift comes after it secured a promise that Arab countries would contribute forces to policing the no-fly zone. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan would be asked to provide aircraft.
Washington is worried that a purely western force would be counter-productive, alienating Arab opinion and damaging the changes elsewhere in the Arab world.
However the rate of advance by Col Gadafy may make a no-fly zone academic.
In an interview with the Italian newspaper Il Giornale, he derided international discussion of a no-fly zone.
The Libyan leader told the rebels: “There are only two possibilities: surrender or run away.” Col Gadafy’s seizure of Ajdabiya opens the way not only to Benghazi but to Tobruk and control of Libya’s border with Egypt.
The coastal road divides at Ajdabiya, offering Col Gadafy’s forces the opportunity to bypass Benghazi to seize towns to the east and then besiege the rebels’ de facto capital from both sides.
Akram Ramadan, a British-born Libyan broadcaster who returned to the UK from Benghazi this week, said: “Everything is already too late. Whatever they decide, it is a month too late. It began on 15th February and it is now 15th March. Libyans are disappointed with the response of the West.”
James Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think-tank, said it was not too late to impose a no-fly zone, “but in military terms it will not do much to help the rebels, and it never would have”.
Tom Donnelly at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank, said: “It would be logistically difficult to do and it is hard to hard to judge. It would have been different a week ago than it would be now.”
The draft resolution was agreed by five security council ambassadors: the US, Britain, France, Germany and Lebanon.
Nine votes are needed to pass the resolution, but both China and Russia have vetoes and have been hostile towards the no-fly zone.
British reign secretary William Hague highlighted Britain’s frustration over the delay when he told MPs: “Patience has to be tempered by the fact that there is an urgent situation here. Events are moving rapidly on the ground, at least [they] have done so in recent days in Libya.”
Germany, backed by Russia, blocked British-French plans for imposition of a no-fly zone at a meeting of G8 ministers in Paris yesterday. German objections, backed by Russia, meant the communique from the meeting would not mention a no-fly zone. – ( Guardianservice)