The US will pay dearly for the war in Iraq both domestically and in terms of the fallout throughout the Middle East, award-winning investigative reporter Seymour Hersh told an audience at Trinity College Dublin last night.
After recounting how he uncovered the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, Hersh told those gathered for the annual Amnesty International lecture that the psychological effects of US conduct during the war would haunt his country for some time.
"We are really going to pay dearly for this. Whatever about talk of world war three, on the macro level, it's going to be devastating."
In a wide-ranging talk, Hersh touched on the rise of the neo-conservatives in the Bush administration; the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq, the current situation in Iraq and Afghanistan; and the prospects of a US strike on Iran.
Asked by moderator Olivia O'Leary if he thought such an attack was likely, Hersh replied: "I don't know. He [US president George Bush] hasn't signed an execution order. But he wants to."
Hersh said the Bush administration had changed their rhetoric on Iran, focusing on Tehran's alleged role in arming Iraqi militias fighting US forces, instead of their initial emphasis on the threat posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The White House realised, Hersh said, that the American public was "not buying" the nuclear threat line and had reacted more positively to claims Iran was implicated in the killing of US solders.
He said the Bush administration wanted Iran "to cross the border [ with Iraq] and do something" so that the US could carry out a reactive strike that would "sell better" to the American public.
Outlining what form a possible attack might take, Hersh said one goal would be to "decapitate" Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
In any case, he said, a strike on Iran would amount to a "total nightmare scenario".
Asked if he thought a Democratic victory in next year's presidential elections would usher in a major policy change on Iraq, he said whoever became president would have to steer the US away from its current course. "Everybody in the Middle East is in a panic about this," he added.
Hersh opened his lecture by warning that, with all the sabre-rattling, "we could well be on the verge of a major war between the West and the Muslim world".