The first signals that Mr David Trimble could be re-elected tomorrow as Northern Ireland's First Minister emerged last night after two dissident Ulster Unionist Assembly members held a "productive" meeting with the international arms decommissioning body.
Throughout this week, the two MLAs, Ms Pauline Armitage and Mr Peter Weir, have strongly indicated that they would be opposing Mr Trimble tomorrow. However, last night there was a shift in their position after they met the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD).
They have been demanding clarity and certainty that the IRA initiative was not a one-off event and that decommissioning would be completed over a specified period of time. Mr Weir and Ms Armitage indicated that progress was made at the meeting with Gen John de Chastelain.
"We have had an interesting, positive, productive meeting with the IICD, receiving answers to many of the questions we posed", they said in a statement last night.
"Meetings to update party colleagues on what we have learnt are ongoing, and we have agreed to maintain a channel of contact with Genl de Chastelain and the commissioners over the next 48 hours. Further details of our meeting will emerge after we have reflected on this new information and consulted broadly", they added.
If Mr Trimble loses tomorrow, the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, could be forced to call fresh Assembly elections or change the legislation to keep the UUP leader in office. He is anxious to avoid the latter option as it would undermine the credibility of the political process.
At the very least, Mr Trimble requires one of the two dissidents to vote for him and the other to abstain.
The British and Irish governments, as well as pro-Belfast Agreement Ulster Unionists, are still concerned that Mr Trimble could lose the Assembly vote tomorrow. They will derive some hope from the comments of Mr Weir and Ms Armitage.
It also emerged last night that Ulster Unionist MP Mr Jeffrey Donaldson could have a significant role in determining the outcome. It is possible that the two MLAs could be swayed if Mr Donaldson was to urge them to support Mr Trimble. The Lagan Valley MP, who is in Australia, could not be contacted for comment.
At a press conference yesterday, Ms Armitage was asked if progress was made at the meeting with the decommissioning body. "Possibly", she said. Asked if Gen de Chastelain's answers to their questions represented progress, she replied: "Yes, they have interested me."
But neither politician would reveal how they will vote tomorrow. "It's too soon, you will know on Friday", Ms Armitage said. "We are going to reflect on the answers we have got", Mr Weir commented.
They showed no interest in an offer from the Sinn FΘin Education Minister, Mr Martin McGuinness, to meet them "to impress upon them the magnitude of the IRA initiative and attempt to allay the fears and concerns they have".
A Sinn FΘin spokesman said he could not say whether Mr McGuinness would be prepared to detail what arms had been decommissioned or when decommissioning might be completed.
Failure to accept the offer would create a public impression that Ms Armitage and Mr Weir were not so much concerned with IRA decommissioning, but rather were anxious not to have to share power with Sinn FΘin or nationalists, the Sinn FΘin spokesman said.
Mr Weir said that he consistently followed a policy of refusing to meet Sinn FΘin or the IRA. "This is just a propaganda exercise", he added. Ms Armitage said she doubted that Mr McGuinness could provide the assurances she required.
Tomorrow's Assembly meeting starts with a motion seeking to immediately redesignate the two Women's Coalition MLAs as unionists. But even their support may not be enough to reinstate Mr Trimble if Mr Weir and Ms Armitage vote against him.
