First there was the rejection of the Nice Treaty, and now it looks as if Fianna Fail could have as disastrous a performance in tomorrow's by-election as this time last year.
Fine Gael entered the battle in this three-seat constituency knowing its candidate, Senator Tom Hayes, was in the strongest position. He came in second last year. The party has thrown everything at this contest, with the party leader, Mr Michael Noonan, appearing almost constantly at the candidate's side.
Fine Gael expects that the upward trajectory of its support - 24 per cent in the general election and 28 per cent last year - will continue and its candidate will be elected. This is also a Fine Gael seat, with the by-election caused by the death of Ms Theresa Ahearn last year.
However, the party has been feeling more than the usual bout of pre-electoral nerves because victory is so important for Mr Noonan. It is his first electoral contest since being elected party leader in March.
If Mr Hayes wins as predicted, it will be spun outside Fine Gael as significant but unremarkable, and Mr Noonan won't get too much credit. But such is politics that, if Mr Hayes loses, it will be deeply damaging for party morale and undermine the leadership.
The X-factor in this contest is the Independent candidate, Ms Phil Prendergast. Her colleague in the Workers' and Unemployed Action Group, Mr Seamus Healy, was elected a TD last June, giving a jolt to the political establishment, a situation which could be repeated.
Doubt has been expressed about the possibility of another Independent being elected, but constituents point out that little has changed in the intervening period that would decrease the protest vote from last year.
However, what may work against Ms Prendergast is that those in other areas of the county, outside Clonmel, will not want to see the election of a third Clonmel-based TD, along with Mr Healy and Mr Noel Davern of Fianna Fail.
One of the main issues has been the neglect of Tipperary town and Carrick-on-Suir, where unemployment is running far higher than the national average. The Government has been under pressure in recent days to make an announcement on decentralisation.
Ms Prendergast, a midwife, has proved a natural canvasser, and her campaign has gained considerable momentum, not least because she had a hand in delivering thousands of babies over the past 17 years in St Joseph's Hospital. As a healthcare worker she has been particularly successful in landing punches on the Government over the problems in the health services.
It is possible that Fianna Fail voters, sensing a Fine Gael win and feeling their own prospects are poor, could vote tactically to elect Ms Prendergast.
Fianna Fail never believed it had a chance of winning but was certain it could improve on last year's dire performance when its support collapsed.
The common wisdom is that its candidate, Mr Michael Maguire, would need a better result than last year's 23 per cent, which marked a 14.5 per cent drop in its share of the vote since the general election.
Mr Maguire is seen as more appealing to the electorate and, unlike the 2000 candidate, Mr Barry O'Brien, has a united local organisation behind him. The party has also been without the burden of the O'Flaherty controversy which was at its height during the last campaign.
The party's director of elections, Mr Brian Lenihan, argues that Mr Maguire, with his strong GAA connections (Tipperary team manager Nicky English canvassed with him this week) and the fact he is so well known in rural areas because of his career as an AI man, is getting good reaction on doorsteps.
In the Nice Treaty referendum this constituency, with its large farming base, returned a 51.43 per cent No vote, one of the lower No majorities.
The Labour Party knew from the beginning that its candidate never stood a realistic chance. The aim was to improve the profile of Mr Denis Landy, from Carrick-on-Suir, before a general election.
Mr Landy is a good candidate, personable and an impressive media performer. However, party members were acknowledging this week that there is no longer a Labour seat in this constituency and they will have to fight hard in next year's general election to have any hope of getting it back.
A new factor is that voting will take place on a Saturday. Opinions vary on how this will affect turnout, which was 54 per cent last year. But outside political circles in Tipperary, the real interest this weekend is in the Tipperary-Limerick hurling match.
The returning officer, Ms Mary Delehaunty, has decided not to break for the game, which begins at 4.20 p.m. There will also be no television at the count centre. Nonetheless, extra counters are being drafted in.