Dublin has a habit of throwing up surprises in the European elections. The poll-topping performance of Patricia McKenna in 1994 was the most recent; but the huge vote of Proinsias De Rossa, then of the Workers' Party in 1989 was just as unexpected.
In the words of one campaign organiser, Dublin has the same volatility in Euro polls that Dun Laoghaire has all the time, as voters feel freed from their normal party allegiances.
That said, two of the longest-established MEPs - Fianna Fail's Niall Andrews and Fine Gael's Mary Banotti - are certainties to hold their seats yet again. Indeed, it will be a big surprise if one of them doesn't top the poll - probably Banotti, boosted still by a respectable performance in the 1997 presidential election.
Outside these two, nobody can be sure of a seat, and the track record of dark horses makes things even more confusing.
The profile of the candidate who might emerge from relative obscurity to repeat the performances of McKenna and De Rossa is probably best fitted by Socialist Party TD Joe Higgins. But his election would still be a major surprise even if, like every left-wing candidate in the field, his chances have been given a big boost by Tony Gregory's decision not to run.
According to Fianna Fail, who put him on the ballot paper in an opinion poll conducted last January, the Independent TD would have had very good prospects. He took 10 per cent of the first preference in the mock poll and then soaked transfers from "everywhere" to take the third seat. But Fianna Fail's thinly-disguised enthusiasm for a Gregory candidacy may have worked against them.
Labour should be the biggest winners from his absence, which leaves a repeat of the party's two-seat performance of 1979 a possibility. The palpable tension between the Labour candidates, Bernie Malone and Proinsias De Rossa, is nothing new after the extraordinary bitterness of 1994.
But if there is any chance of a second seat, it will require a better inter-party transfer than last time, when only 8,000 of the eliminated Orla Guerin's 20,000 votes moved to Malone. Of the race between Malone and De Rossa, everybody agrees it's still too close to call.
On the 1994 figures, none of the three main parties is remotely close to having two quotas. Fine Gael topped the poll last time with a combined 66,000, and again have the doughty Jim Mitchell - beaten for the last seat by Malone in 1994 - as Banotti's running mate.
This is also the most balanced ticket, the only one of the main three parties to include both a male-female and northside-southside spread. That said, another balance could be crucial: a too lopsided vote could put paid to any second seat, but whether Banotti has the confidence to spread some of her first-preference vote Mitchell's way is the question.
If you merge the Labour and Democratic Left votes, Fianna Fail is only third on the 1994 figures; and although the party has opted for a more scientific vote management strategy this time - allocating the west of the constituency and 40 per cent of the electorate to Ben Briscoe - organisers admit they will need every party voter (the candidate-less PDs have declared their neutrality) plus transfers to take two seats.
In the January poll, according to one source, the fight for the last seat was an "absolute melee" involving Malone, De Rossa, Mitchell, McKenna and Briscoe.
Patricia McKenna, poll-topper last time, is paradoxically something of an unknown factor this time. A high-profile MEP, her stridency on issues of concern to the Green Party has won detractors as well as admirers (and has clearly irked the Taoiseach), while her association with the Supreme Court's landmark "McKenna judgment" is a very mixed blessing.
She may not enjoy the same huge mop-up of lower preferences on this occasion; although if the 30 per cent transfer from Sinn Fein is repeated, she could benefit from the expected strong showing of Sean Crowe. The Tallaght candidate is not a contender for a seat, but as one of Sinn Fein's top vote-pullers in the 1997 general election, he is building an electoral base and could narrow the gap on the party's record 1984 performance in Dublin, when it polled 15,000.
Dr Gerard Casey (Christian Solidarity), John Burns (Natural Law Party), Ciaran Goulding (Independent) and Adam Goodwin (Independent) complete the field.