Voters are almost equally divided on whether the Taoiseach should resign as a result of the controversy over his personal finances and tax liabilities, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
With the Dáil due to resume on Wednesday, voters were asked if they agreed with the calls by the leaders of Fine Gael and Labour on Mr Ahern to resign in the wake of his evidence to the Mahon tribunal and the revelations about his contacts with the Revenue Commissioners.
Forty-six per cent said Mr Ahern should not resign while 44 per cent said he should, and 10 per cent had no opinion. Fianna Fáil voters were much more supportive of the Taoiseach, with 77 per cent of them saying he should not resign.
There is better news for the Government when it comes to party support, with Fianna Fáil, the Greens and the Progressive Democrats all marginally up, even though Fine Gael has held on to the significant gains it made in first post-election Irish Times poll last October.
The adjusted figures for party support, compared to the last Irish Times poll in October 2007, are: Fianna Fáil, 34 per cent (up one point); Fine Gael, 31 per cent (no change); Labour, 12 per cent (down three points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up one point); Green Party, 6 per cent (up one point); PDs, 3 per cent (up one point); and Independents/ others, 6 per cent (down one point).
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.
It was taken as the controversy over the Taoiseach's personal finances continued in the media, in advance of his next Mahon tribunal appearance, and against a background of deteriorating international economic news.
The core vote for the parties compared with the last Irish Times poll is: Fianna Fáil, 32 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 23 per cent (up one point); Labour, 9 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up two points); Greens, 5 per cent (up one point); PDs, 2 per cent (no change); Independents/others, 4 per cent (down one point); and undecided voters 17 per cent (down three points).
On the issue of Mr Ahern's personal finances and tax liabilities, 78 per cent of people do not believe he has given the full picture (up 6 per cent) while just 14 per cent believe he has given the full picture (down 3 per cent).
Asked to respond to the indication given by Mr Ahern that he may step down before the next election, 55 per cent said he should step down while 36 per cent felt he should lead on, with 10 per cent having no opinion. Among Fianna Fáil voters, however, almost two-thirds felt he should lead the party next time around.
In terms of satisfaction ratings the poll shows a further decline for both the Government and the Taoiseach.
Following its 15 point drop in the last poll the Government has now fallen another two points, to 35 per cent.
The Taoiseach's satisfaction rating is down three points to 40 per cent after a 15-point drop in the last poll, while his dissatisfaction rating is up four points to 54 per cent.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has slipped one point to 41 per cent, but he is now ahead of Mr Ahern for the first time since he took over as party leader after the 2002 election.
His dissatisfaction rating is 20 points lower than Mr Ahern's. The poll showed a 3 per cent increase in the satisfaction rating of the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, to 52 per cent, and he continues to have a higher rating than any of the party leaders.
Labour leader Eamon Gilmore's rating has jumped six points to 36 per cent while Green Party leader John Gormley is up two points to 42 per cent.
Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has recovered much of the ground he lost in the last poll, with an increase of 7 points to 48 per cent. Mary Harney's rating remains unchanged at 35 per cent.
The PDs have seen a modest increase in their adjusted level of support but a majority of party voters are now dissatisfied with performance of the Government and of the Taoiseach.
The same is true of Green Party supporters.
One of the most worrying findings for Mr Ahern is that his rating in Dublin has plummeted, with twice as many people in the capital expressing dissatisfaction than satisfaction with his performance.
