ANALYSIS:The midterm elections setback has impaired the president's ability to set the agenda
JOHN BOEHNER, the Republican Representative from Ohio who will now be the Speaker of the House, got one thing right in his victory speech in the Grand Hyatt Hotel ballroom late on Tuesday night. “It is the president who sets the agenda for our government,” Boehner said. “The American people have sent an unmistakable message to him tonight, and that message is: change course.”
Two years after Barack Obama became the first African-American president of the United States, with 53 per cent of the popular vote and to rapturous acclaim from around the world, an even larger percentage of Americans have seriously impaired his ability to “set the agenda” for the remaining two years of his first term.
It was a historic comeback for the Republicans, who were decimated in the 2006 and 2008 elections, surpassing even their victory in the 1994 midterms, which changed the course of Bill Clinton’s presidency.
By late morning yesterday, it became clear Republicans had gained at least 60 House seats, with 11 districts still too close to call. The final count is expected to be in the mid 60s. This represents the biggest GOP victory in midterm elections since 1938, when the Democrats lost 71 House seats because of dissatisfaction with Franklin D Roosevelt’s New Deal. That the election was a referendum on Obama was confirmed by exit polls, in which 61 per cent of voters said they voted for or against him: 24 per cent to show support; 37 per cent to oppose him.
Perhaps most humiliating for Obama, the Democrats lost key races in Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania, states he visited last weekend. In Illinois, Obama’s own Senate seat fell to the Republican Mark Kirk. Democrats lost five House seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, “rust belt” states that have been particularly blighted by recession.
Obama travelled to Ohio four times to campaign for Governor Ted Strickland, who lost to John Kasich, a former Fox News commentator and former banker with the hated Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the near collapse of the global financial system.
Obama shouted himself hoarse on the campaign trail, mostly for nought. He fought for only one Representative, the freshman Democrat Tom Perriello in Virginia, for whom he travelled to Charlottesville last Friday night. Perriello had been a loyal supporter of Obama’s policies, including the stimulus package and the healthcare overhaul, and he lost.
It is not unusual for “freshmen” Representatives to be turned out in midterms. But even Democratic incumbents of long-standing were defeated by little known Republicans on Tuesday; Rick Boucher of Virginia had served 28 years in the House; Chet Edwards of Texas, 20 years.
Exit polls left no doubt as to the cause of the Democratic debacle. Eighty-nine per cent of voters said the American economy was in bad shape; 38 per cent said life will be harder for their children. The economy was rated the single most important issue by 62 per cent of voters, far outweighing healthcare reform (19 per cent), immigration (8 per cent) and the war in Afghanistan (7 per cent).
In previous elections, high unemployment and a poor economy motivated voters to vote for Democrats. That changed this week. Exit polls showed that 53 per cent of “economy voters” chose Republicans. Obama had repeatedly warned voters against “amnesia” that “it was the Republicans who got us into this mess”. The argument failed, perhaps, as a Democratic activist in Ohio told me, because “Obama didn’t kick Wall Street’s ass enough”.
There were a few bright spots for the Democrats. They kept at least 50 seats in the Senate, where the GOP gained six seats and results in three races are still pending. This is the first time in 80 years that the House has changed hands without the Senate. The Democrats’ thin majority may prove to be an albatross around Obama’s neck, because his party will share blame if the 112th Congress replays the partisan gridlock of the 111th.
Harry Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate, fended off an almost fatal challenge from the Tea Partier Sharron Angle. The Democrats also kept Joe Biden’s former seat in Delaware. California stayed “blue”, with wins by the incumbent Democratic senator Barbara Boxer and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown.
It was symbolic that Rand Paul, a libertarian and favourite of the Tea Party, was the first candidate whose victory was announced on Tuesday evening. Without the energy and anger of the Tea Party, the Republicans would not have made anywhere near as many gains in the House, Senate and state governments. Tea Party candidates Marco Rubio and Nikki Hailey won the Florida Senate and South Carolina gubernatorial races, respectively.
But where Tea Partiers were seen to be too extreme, as with Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, Carl Paladino in New York and probably Joe Miller in Alaska, they lost. The GOP are wary of their new allies in Congress, and are likely to find them demanding and difficult partners.
Republicans won at least eight governors’ mansions, with six races not yet determined, and control of at least 16 state legislatures. Because the country is about to embark on the once-a-decade process of redrawing congressional districts, control of the majority of state governments gives the Republicans an advantage in future elections.
Henceforth, American politics will focus on the 2012 presidential election. Obama may find some solace in history. The three biggest midterm losers of the past century – Bill Clinton in 1994, Harry Truman in 1946 and Franklin D Roosevelt in 1938 – all won re-election two years later.