A NATO war against Yugoslavia appeared more likely last night as the US and French presidents renewed threats of air strikes if the Yugoslav leader, Mr Slobodan Milosevic, does not accept NATO troops in Kosovo. "We stand united in our determination to use force," President Bill Clinton said in a joint press conference with President Jacques Chirac, who is visiting Washington. "Our agreement is an unqualified agreement," Mr Chirac added. "The time has come [for Mr Milosevic] to choose the path of wisdom and not the path of war."
Mr Chirac's support removes one possible source of discord within the six-nation Contact Group that has tried to obtain an agreement between Serbs and ethnic Albanians from Kosovo. But Russia, which is also a member of the group, reiterated its opposition to the use of force.
If Mr Milosevic is bluffing, he is doing a very good job. In the last hours before the expiry of the international ultimatum, he snub bed the US chief negotiator, Mr Christopher Hill. He boasted to a visiting Cypriot delegation: "We will not give up Kosovo, even if we are bombed." His country could not accept what he called "a foreign occupation" of Yugoslav territory, Mr Milosevic added.
The firepower amassed to sway Mr Milosevic is daunting: 430 NATO strike and support aircraft, including US F-117 stealth jets and B-52 bombers. Should Mr Milosevic persist beyond today's noon deadline, the Pentagon suggested an initial salvo of 50 Tomahawk cruise missiles will target Yugoslav military air defences. NATO has devised a progressive strategy for the bombing campaign. Mr Milosevic would be offered a chance to change his mind during pauses between successively more massive strikes.
Western diplomatic missions in Belgrade have advised their citizens to leave Yugoslavia and international aid organisations yesterday began pulling their staff out of Kosovo. But it is unlikely that air-strikes would start before the military observers of the Kosovo Verification Mission retreat south to Macedonia, a process that could take at least 48 hours, in effect granting Mr Milosevic more time.
In behaviour typical of his treatment of foreign officials, Mr Milosevic yesterday refused to see Mr Hill, the US ambassador to Macedonia who has led negotiations at Rambouillet Castle since they opened on February 6th. Mr Hill was told he could see the Yugoslav Foreign Minister, Mr Zivadin Jovanovic, instead.
Mr Milosevic is believed to be holding out for a visit by the US Secretary of State, Mrs Madeleine Albright, who was due to arrive in Rambouillet from Washington this morning. Even though the State Department said there were no plans for Mrs Albright to travel to Belgrade, it would be difficult for NATO to commence bombing unless all diplomatic means were first exhausted.
There was speculation last night that Mrs Albright might take the British and French foreign ministers, who have co-chaired the Rambouillet conference, with her to see Mr Milosevic. If in the final hours of the peace conference there is the slightest sign the Serbs may be relenting, the negotiations could go into what the US calls "dead time", while a final appeal is made to Mr Milosevic.
For Mr Milosevic and his supporters, the deployment of NATO troops would be more humiliating than the restoration of Kosovo's autonomy, which he rescinded 10 years ago. If an agreement is to be reached - and the chances appear slim - the ethnic Albanians, who compose 90 per cent of Kosovo's population, would have to renounce hopes of a referendum on independence in three years.
