Syria: The target of the concerted campaign against Damascus is, for the moment, Lebanon's pro-Syrian president, Emile Lahoud, writes Michael Jansen.
Washington and Beirut have stepped up pressure on Damascus with the aim of compelling Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, to "do a Gaddafy". Following the US occupation of Iraq, Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafy capitulated to US demands by ending his nuclear programme, handing over fissionable material and equipment, and pledging to cease involvement in "terrorism".
The target of the concerted campaign is, for the moment, Lebanon's president Emile Lahoud, a close ally of Syria. According to witnesses interrogated by the UN team investigating the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri last February, the extension of Mr Lahoud's term of office by three years set in train the conspiracy to kill Mr Hariri, a powerful politician who opposed the extension.
The Hariri camp claims that, on August 26th 2004, President Assad personally threatened Mr Hariri if he stuck to his stance. Mr Hariri voted in favour, but was nevertheless said to be a threat to Syrian interests in Lebanon.
On Saturday, the Lebanese authorities detained Mahmud Abdel Al, who was alleged to have telephoned Mr Lahoud on February 14th this year, two minutes ahead of the bomb blast which killed Mr Hariri. Mr Abdel Al is the brother of Ahmad Abdel Al, the head of a conservative Islamic philanthropic organisation with ties to Syria.
The brothers, who are closely connected with four high-ranking Lebanese security figures charged with involvement in the killing, are said to be leading figures in the assassination plot.
The original version of the UN report, released last Thursday, also named President Assad's brother Maher and brother-in-law Asef Shawkat, who was appointed head of Syrian military intelligence a few days after Mr Hariri was killed. However, due to Syrian sensitivity over accusations levelled by anonymous witnesses against members of the Assad family, their names were deleted from the file published by UN headquarters and posted on the internet.
Syria could prove to be a tougher proposition than Libya, which was isolated internationally and ostracised by the Arabs. Damascus still holds important cards in the game being played for control of Lebanon.
Syria remains intimately tied to Lebanon economically and politically. Lebanese products exported to the Arab hinterland transit Syria, Lebanon depends on Syrian construction and agricultural labour, and many Syrians deposit their money in Lebanese banks and do business in Lebanon.
Syria also enjoys the backing of many Lebanese Sunnis, some Christians and the Amal and Hizbullah movements.
The timing of the US-led offensive against Syria is significant. It is scheduled to peak as the Arab world approaches the feast which ends the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, when most people are preoccupied with religious pursuits and family observances.