IRAQ:Prime minister Maliki's government under fire from all sides President Bush is eager to create the impression that Iraq is advancing politically, writes Michael Jansen
Although critical of Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, President Bush remains committed to his government. On Tuesday, Mr Bush warned the Iraqis that the faltering premier and cabinet could be "replaced by the Iraqi people" but on Wednesday, he noted: "Prime minister Maliki is a good guy, a good man with a difficult job and I support him."
These words were a blessing for Maliki whose government has been reduced to 20 members by the defection of Shia, Sunni and secular ministers and of grand ayatollah Ali Sistani who forged the Shia alliance which has dominated Iraqi politics since 2005.
The ayatollah says he is "disgusted" with the government because it has not delivered security, electricity, water, jobs and reconciliation. Seeking to exploit Maliki's sinking star, the Shia parties that put him in power are challenging him.
Former premier Ibrahim al-Jaafari of Dawa, Maliki's own party, and Adel Abdel Mahdi, of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), want to oust Maliki and take over his job. But the US is reluctant to allow this to happen. Washington is doubtful that either could do better than Maliki and is suspicious of SIIC, which was created by Iran and retains close ties to Tehran.
Furthermore, replacing Maliki and his rump government could involve weeks if not months of wrangling over posts at a time the Bush administration is eager to create the impression that Iraq is advancing politically, while US forces are attempting to defeat the insurgency by means of the much vaunted military surge.
Iraqi analysts point out that al-Jaafari, Mahdi and Sistani are Shia fundamentalists who represent the sectarian system which is destroying the national, political and social fabric of the country. Maliki's third challenger, Ayad Allawi, who heads the secular Iraqi National Party, contends that the abolition of sectarianism, not a new cabinet, is essential if Iraq is to emerge as a viable nation state.
Although Arab commentators agree with Allawi, the Bush administration is unlikely to opt for regime change because it would create another major upheaval in a severely destabilised Iraq and could be opposed through force by Shia and Kurdish militias which have gained power under the ethno-sectarian model imposed by the US.
Frustrated by continuing chaos and anarchy in Iraq, former military figures may be preparing to take action. Prof Juan Cole, an Iraq expert at the University of Michigan, reports that exiles living in Damascus say there is serious talk that a six-member "military commission" could take over the government, ban political parties for two years, and put appointed officials in charge of ministries.
It is understood the US might support such a commission, which would be drawn from figures inside Iraq but outside the government and security services. The objective would be stability and elections would then be held once the political system is reformed.