Waterford:Although ostensibly one of the more stable constituencies over the past 20 years, Waterford can deliver surprises, as happened in 1987 when Martin Cullen was elected for the Progressive Democrats. Nothing should be taken for granted this time either.
In 2002, Fianna Fáil enjoyed a good return from Waterford, with the party increasing its vote from 35.8 per cent to 46.3 per cent with the recruitment of Cullen, who topped the poll with 18.3 per cent of the vote, joined by Cllr Ollie Wilkinson from Cappoquin, who won 15.7 per cent.
Wilkinson was elected on the seventh count along with Labour's Brian O'Shea from Tramore. In the process, he unseated his running mate Brendan Kenneally, who had been a TD since 1989 and was the third generation of his family to represent Waterford in the Dáil.
Fine Gael in Waterford saw its vote drop from 24.6 per cent in 1997 to 21.5 per cent in 2002, with outspoken newcomer John Deasy from Dungarvan taking over the mantle from his father Austin, who had stepped down after 22 years as a TD in the constituency.
This time around, Fianna Fáil is again running Cullen, Wilkinson and Kenneally. Deasy is joined by Cllr Paudie Coffey and Cllr Jim D'Arcy on the Fine Gael ticket, while Brian O'Shea is flying the Labour flag. Cllr David Cullinane is running for Sinn Féin. Cllr John Halligan is running for the Workers' Party and Brendan McCann for the Greens, and they're joined by anti-abortion candidate Declan Waters, Francis Hennessy campaigning against youth gambling, and Cllr Mary Roche, who quit Fianna Fáil in protest at the lack of cancer therapy facilities.
A poll by Red C for the Waterford News and Star in April showed Deasy topping the poll with 20 per cent, with Cullen on 16 per cent, O'Shea on 14 per cent, Wilkinson at 13 per cent and both Kenneally and Cullinane on 9 per cent.
Most pundits agree Deasy and Cullen will take the first two seats, Cullen having successfully insulated himself through ministerial largesse from the backlash over public radiotherapy facilities which cost Fianna Fáil seats in the 2004 local elections.
Fine Gael's hopes of a second seat appeared to have been scuppered by running three candidates against advice from Deasy, who argued for a city candidate to partner him. The Red C poll seems to confirm this, with Coffey and D'Arcy both on 5 per cent.
Most pundits also believe O'Shea, who topped the poll in 1992 with a whopping 26.4 per cent on the back of the Spring tide, should also be safe, leaving the last seat between Wilkinson and Cullinane of Sinn Féin, with Kenneally effectively acting as a Fianna Fáil sweeper candidate.
Sinn Féin is confident the Red C poll underestimates support for Cullinane and it points to its success in winning three seats in city and council elections in 2004 with more than 3,000 votes, and the 10,000 votes that Cullinane garnered in Waterford in his 2004 European campaign.
Sinn Féin believes if Cullinane can hold 60 per cent of that vote, he is in with a chance of a seat. It is a view shared by some observers from other parties, who say he should get a good transfer from Halligan, who gave him a 25.19 per cent of this transfers in 2002.
Cullinane's supporters say he will poll well across the constituency, but it seems reasonable to assume he will be strongest in the city, in his own ward in Kilcohan, Lisduggan, and Ballybeg on the western fringes.
Those who predict Fianna Fáil will hold their second seat point out that the party had 46.3 per cent of the vote in 2002, and could afford to take a drop of 6 per cent and still be in with a more than decent chance of Wilkinson holding the second seat on Kenneally's transfers.
They also point out that there are just four candidates in the county, where the electorate totals 47,000, as opposed to nine candidates in the city where the electorate has dropped from about 30,000 to 25,000, making Wilkinson favourite for the last seat.
Important issues are schools, class sizes and health, in particular the lack of public radiotherapy facilities for the southeast. Other issues include transport, especially the need for a motorway to Dublin and improved local access. Waterford Institute of Technology's campaign for university status and confusion over varying plans to abolish stamp duty and its impact on the housing market are being mentioned on the doorsteps.
VERDICT: FF - 2, FG - 1, Labour - 1 (No Change)
