Iran: The hardline Iranian president-elect was not considered a serious contender by US and EU analysts, writes Robin Wright in Washington.
The US and its European allies are bracing for a tough new opponent in Iran with the election of Tehran's ultra-conservative mayor as president. A relative unknown to the outside world, his campaign pledged to take a harder line in talks on Iran's nuclear programme.
The victory of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has alarmed US and European officials over issues including the future of Iraq, the Middle East peace efforts and the impact on oil markets. Any prospect of ending more than a quarter of a century of tensions with Iran is also unlikely after Mr Ahmadinejad begins his four-year term this summer.
"This all but closes the door for a breakthrough in US-Iran relations," Karim Sadjadpour, Iran analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said in a telephone interview from Tehran.
The election consolidates control of foreign policy in the hands of Iran's conservative supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and will weaken or eliminate the eight-year debate between reformers and conservatives over how far to go with the West, Iranian and western analysts said.
"The supreme leader is very suspicious of Americans, particularly the Bush administration," Mr Sadjadpour said. He still subscribes to the position of Iranian revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who died 15 years ago, that the relationship between Washington and Tehran "is like [that] between a wolf and a sheep".
For the international community, the most urgent issue is a permanent deal to ensure that Iran cannot use its energy programme to develop a nuclear weapon. The Bush administration and a European team - Britain, France and Germany - had hoped the new government would be powerful enough to wrap up negotiations. The European-led talks with Iran had stalled, in part to await the election outcome.
The tone of the next administration was reflected in a recent law passed by a parliamentary faction aligned with Mr Ahmadinejad - and in defiance of a temporary deal brokered last November suspending Iran's uranium enrichment. Parliament ordered the government to resume the enrichment, a step in energy production that can be converted for use in a weapons programme.
Mr Ahmadinejad has also criticised Iranian negotiators for being weak with the West. "Nuclear energy is a result of Iranian people's scientific development," he said on election day. "This right of the Iranian people will soon be recognised by those who have so far denied it."
Apprehension about the future was apparent yesterday in statements from Britain and Germany. "I hope that under Mr Ahmadinejad's presidency, Iran will take early steps to address international concerns about its nuclear programme and policies towards terrorism, human rights and the Middle East peace process," British foreign secretary Jack Straw said.
German foreign minister Joschka Fischer said the Europeans expect Iran to honour the terms of the temporary deal to halt uranium enrichment.
The US challenged the election results because more than 1,000 candidates were disqualified amid allegations of fraud. The State Department said it was "sceptical that the Iranian regime is interested in addressing either the legitimate desires of its own people or the concerns of the international community."
Key western governments were caught off-guard because of assumptions that former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani would win the election.
Mr Ahmadinejad, who trained as a civil engineer specialising in traffic management and who served in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, was not considered a serious contender in the election's first round, on June 17th, when seven candidates competed. Mr Rafsanjani won the most votes, but no one received more than 50 per cent, so a run-off was held last Friday.
Although Iran's supreme leader has always had the final word on policy, the new president is likely to bring in his own team to replace the seasoned diplomats who have handled foreign policy for decades, including tentative overtures for a dialogue with the West, say Iranian sources involved in politics.
"Ahmadinejad said he would follow the lead of the supreme leader on foreign policy. But his election will strengthen the voice of those in parliament and among Iran's conservatives who are opposed to a flexible posture . . . and are against a deal that would surrender Iran's right to a fuel cycle," said Shaul Bakhash, a George Mason University professor and author of The Reign of the Ayatollahs.
The new president also reflects the hardline positions in Tehran on Iraq and Israel.
He appears to have a "much more serious ideological and moral opposition to Israel" than his predecessors, Anthony Cordesman, an expert on the Persian Gulf region, wrote yesterday for the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies. There is a "higher risk" of Iranian action in Iraq - and, thus, of confrontation with the US. - (LA Times-Washington Post)