What now for the UUP: the likely leadership contenders

Although nobody has officially declared yet for the contest to succeed David Trimble as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, …

Although nobody has officially declared yet for the contest to succeed David Trimble as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, several names are being prominently mentioned.

Rarely can a party leadership post have seemed less attractive, given the loss of UUP seats in the Westminster election and the likelihood of further losses when the local government results are announced over the next two days.The leadership election is likely to be held at the end of this month or in early June and the party's sole Member of the European Parliament, James Nicholson, has also been mentioned as a possible candidate.

Lady Sylvia Hermon

The sole remaining Ulster Unionist representative in the House of Commons, Lady Sylvia Hermon said in an RTÉ interview broadcast yesterday that she stood for "liberal unionism".

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While the UUP lost its four other seats, Lady Hermon fought off a formidable challenge from the DUP's Peter Weir to hold North Down with a reduced majority.

She says that she will make her intentions known early this week and pointed out that her husband, former RUC chief constable Sir John Hermon, now in his 77th year, is suffering from Alzheimer's disease.

Her success in retaining the North Down seat was due in part to cross-community and Alliance Party support for someone who epitomises the middle ground of unionism.

Whether such a traditionalist body as the Ulster Unionist Council is ready to elect a woman leader remains problematic.

There is also a significant element of opinion in the UUC that considers the policies of David Trimble and Lady Hermon were too "soft" and caused the party to lose ground to the more hardline DUP.

Like Ken (now Lord) Maginnis in 1995, Lady Harmon would have support from public opinion south of the Border, which could be the kiss of death in any unionist leadership contest.

David Burnside

Seen as the hard right of the UUP, David Burnside lost his House of Commons seat in South Antrim to the Rev William McCrea of the DUP. In the last Westminster election four years ago, Burnside took the seat back from McCrea, who had won it in a byelection the previous year. If he entered the leadership race, the 53-year-old public relations guru would be favoured by those who believe the party has allowed itself to be outflanked on the right by the DUP for too long. Burnside still remains a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly, having topped the poll in the 2003 elections in South Antrim. A long-time Trimble critic, in the aftermath of last week's defeat Burnside again urged his leader's departure in no uncertain terms.

"I said last year he is past his sell-by date and I haven't changed my mind." Now Burnside has the chance to set out his stall.

Lord Kilclooney

A senior statesman of Ulster unionism, the former Westminster MP for Strangford would be seen as a safe pair of hands to guide the fortunes of the party as a caretaker leader while the search for a more long-term candidate continued. Formerly known as John Taylor, he was the favourite to succeed James (now Lord) Molyneaux in the 1995 leadership contest that was ultimately won by David Trimble. Widely experienced in politics, he was a minister in the old Stormont parliament and a Member of the European parliament as well as the House of Commons.

However, at present he has no seat in the Northern Ireland Assembly, although fresh elections are likely next year. If he let his name go forward, he would project an image of solidity at a time when the future of the party is in question.

Sir Reg Empey

Thanks in part to the decision by David Ervine of the Progressive Unionist Party not to go forward, Reg Empey increased his vote in the East Belfast constituency at a time when so many of his party colleagues were losing support. But the former economy minister in the power-sharing Executive was still nearly 6,000 votes behind the successful candidate, Peter Robinson of the DUP.

He would be likely to attract support from the liberal minority and elements of the conservative majority in the Ulster Unionist Council. As Lord Mayor of Belfast in 1990, he made headlines and drew criticism from hardliners when he insisted on welcoming delegates to a conference in Belfast attended by the then-taoiseach Charles Haughey. Knighted in 1998, his personal charm and approachable manner could win him support, even from those who regard him as too "soft" on the peace process.