ANALYSIS:Ictu to meet on Wednesday to devise a strategy for dealing with the new situation, writes Martin Wall
THE NET effect of the collapse of the national pay talks is that over the coming weeks private sector unions will begin to lodge claims for wage rises with individual companies, in most cases for the first time in a generation.
However, many senior trade union figures believe that while claims may be lodged, this does not mean that there will be widespread industrial relations strife, in the short-term at least.
On Wednesday, the private sector committee of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (Ictu) will meet to devise a strategy for dealing with the new situation.
Informed sources suggested that could involve seeking to identify companies with a capacity to pay increases, which in turn could effectively set a trend.
It is not expected that Ictu will recommend levels of increase to be sought across various sectors but may issue general guidelines.
Various unions have different ideas on the levels of increases that should be sought.
Unite has spoken of increases of more than 5 per cent to provide for rises of more than the rate of inflation, while Mandate, which represents retail staff, is to look for flat-rate increases of around €30 per week.
However, in reality individual claims are likely to be based on the perceived positions in individual companies.
Once the issue of the size of the claim has been decided the question will turn to the response of employers.
The employers' group Ibec has urged its member companies not to engage in local bargaining with unions until the meeting sought by the Taoiseach with the social partners at the end of the month has taken place.
Ibec has not given up on the prospect of a national deal being secured at the 11th hour. However it said that if an agreement was not concluded it would then issue detailed guidelines to members on local bargaining.
Unions have described the Ibec position as "provocative".
Privately, many union leaders accept that pay claims lodged in the coming weeks will not be concluded by the end of the month.
Some union figures maintained that in most companies there are internal procedures for dealing with such claims that have to be addressed.
These procedures will take some time to work through, and it is almost certain that the first wave of pay claims will be referred to outside third parties before being concluded.
On this basis, some senior union leaders believe that there is unlikely to be any widespread industrial relations trouble in the short-term as a result of the collapse of the talks.
However, if there is no national deal following the renewed contacts at the end of the month, the prospect for industrial relations instability later in the year remains.
The current pay deal in the public sector expires at the end of September so the Government has some breathing space before facing claims from 300,000 public servants if no successor national deal is reached.
The Government has said that despite the collapse of the pay talks that the other elements of social partnership, including the national implementation body, the main trouble-shooting mechanism, will remain in place.
The wider social elements of the national agreement on issues such as poverty, healthcare and education will also remain in place.
However if, as has been argued, the involvement of the various social partners in developing policy in these areas was the Government's trade off for securing certainty on pay and industrial relations stability, questions will undoubtedly be asked as to whether this process is sustainable over time in the absence of a pay deal.