FRANCE:The communist party, once the country's biggest, faces extinction as the splintered far left is in free-fall, writes Lara Marlowein Paris
The presidential election has set in motion a dramatic reconfiguration of the French political scene. Though the process is still in flux, the end result is likely to be the consolidation of two main blocs - Nicolas Sarkozy's right-wing UMP and a more centrist socialist party (PS) - not unlike the US Republican and Democratic parties.
At the same time, the far left, anti-liberal parties who led the fight against the European constitutional treaty have been routed to such a point that the continued existence of the French communist party (PCF) is in doubt.
The centrist François Bayrou is trying to transform the 18.57 per cent of the vote he won in the first round into a viable democratic party in next month's legislative elections. To succeed, he will need to strike an agreement with the PS.
At his annual May Day parade today, the extreme right-wing leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, whose support dropped to 10.44 per cent in the first round, will announce his recommendations for next Sunday's run-off. Polls show 68 per cent of Le Pen voters will in any case vote for Mr Sarkozy.
Through a combination of coaxing and bullying, Mr Sarkozy has united the French right to an extent unprecedented since the 1960s. This unity has been a huge advantage. His rival, the socialist Ségolène Royal, has campaigned with minimal support from the PS "elephants". She has tried to distance herself from the party, rarely visiting its headquarters and telling militants on the night she qualified for the run-off, "I no longer belong to you".
The greens and PCF both made their poorest showing ever. The PCF's decline is particularly spectacular: buoyed up by its role in the Resistance, it was France's biggest party from 1945 until 1958, and remained the leading force on the left until the 1970s.
The communist candidate Marie-George Buffet (1.93 per cent of the vote) and the green candidate Dominique Voynet (1.57 per cent) claim their low scores were the result of the "useful vote" ethic that ensured Ms Royal made it to the run-off, and do not reflect the real strength of their movements. There may be an element of truth to this for the greens, but the far left is in crisis. Five candidates, including three Trotskyists, won only 9 per cent of the vote, their lowest score in 25 years.
After the defeat of the European constitutional treaty on May 29th, 2005, the PCF, communist revolutionary league (LCR), José Bové's anti-globalisation movement and other far-left groups seemed to have the wind in their sails. The following October, they agreed to choose a single candidate for the presidential election. But they feuded and the result was five candidacies instead of one.
Other factors strengthened disillusionment with the extreme left. The "plan B" to the European treaty promised by its opponents never materialised, and Europe is still paralysed by the French "no". The vast majority of French voters may at last have comprehended that, however cruel the market economy may be, no viable alternative is on offer.Olivier Besancenot, the 33-year-old postman and LCR candidate who received 4.08 per cent of the vote, is the only survivor of the far-left debacle. In his jeans, T-shirts and sneakers, Besancenot looks like a French student.
The son of a physics professor and a school psychologist, he holds a masters degree in contemporary history. On the night of the first round, he said France needed "a new anti-capitalist force". With his own score more than double that of other far-left contenders, Besancenot is poised to lead the far left. He has emphasised social issues and independence from the PS.
The future of the PS is the biggest question of all. If Ms Royal loses the election by a narrow margin, as predicted by opinion polls, she will be well placed to at last reform the party - a task that Lionel Jospin and her partner François Hollande shirked from doing for the past 12 years.
Ms Royal has not explicitly said she intends to do so, but the political scientist Dominique Reynié says she will have no choice. "It's an obligation," he said. "If the PS doesn't evolve towards social democracy, its support will drop to 15 per cent."
In an interview with Le Monde today, Ms Royal said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, her former rival and the most social democratic of PS leaders, "could be a very good prime minister".
The far left have viewed Ms Royal's dialogue with Mr Bayrou with suspicion. Alain Krivine, spokesman for the LCR, says she risks "demobilising part of the left".
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a socialist who campaigned against the constitutional treaty, accused her of "playing with fire". Henri Emmanuelli, another anti-treaty socialist, has called for the creation of "a big progressive party" uniting all left-wing anti-liberals.