Asian nations, excluding an ailing Japan, are leading the global economic recovery with accelerated growth projected for the next two years.
The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have issued reports that predict similar growth forecasts, but both warned the region remained vulnerable to several risks, including an oil price increase, which could derail the recovery.
The World Bank put economic growth in East Asia, excluding Japan, at 4.5 per cent this year and up to 6 per cent in 2003 but said the rebound depended on the introduction of "essential domestic policy reforms".
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) saw 4.8 per cent growth in developing Asia in 2002, rising to 5.8 per cent next year, barring "disruptive global events".
"Generally speaking, with the one striking and exceptional case of Japan where news is really not very positive, news in the rest of the region is quite positive but it's tentative," the World Bank's regional chief economist, Mr Homi Kharas said.
In its half-yearly regional report, the World Bank said although the Japanese economy was expected to shrink 1.2 per cent this year, the rest of East Asia was enjoying a quicker and stronger recovery than expected six months ago.
But Mr Kharas said although strong domestic consumer demand meant East Asia "is leading the global recovery . . . a combination of global, regional and domestic factors could shorten the duration of that recovery".
A possible short-lived US economic recovery, continued uncertainties in the Japanese economy and the increasing competitive threat from China are factors that can hurt the region, he said.
AFP